Q4 2026 · the quarter META reports
Sales
PricedIn$75.0B$72.2B – $77.4B
$72.2B$75.0B$77.4B
adjusted EPS
PricedIn$8.23$6.87 – $9.57
$6.87$8.23$9.57
Middlethe forecast80% range1 in 10 chance below this bar, 1 in 10 above it. These are the low and high printed by each number.
The models agree closely: sales middles run from $74.5B to $75.6B. Muse, lowest, placed its middle 'at 74.5 billion, inside that range' without leaning high. Opus, highest, notes the first-quarter result 'landed near the top of this range' and puts the quarter near the top of the guide with costs 'a little below the midpoint'. Sol's earnings range, $6.10 to $10.50, is widest: its 'approximate 10th-to-90th-percentile sales range' is 'wider than management's planning range'.
Fourth-quarter sales of about $75.0B, in the upper half of the company's own range, as AI-driven ad gains carry into the holidays.
Sales$75.0B$72.2B – $77.4B · +25% on Q4 2025 ($59.9B)
Adjusted EPS$8.23$6.87 – $9.57 · −7% on Q4 2025 ($8.88)
Investment and cash generation
Base case
Capital spending$52.9B
Free cash flow−$14.0B
Free cash flow: operating cash flow less capital spending.
The company reported third-quarter sales of $64.6B, above the top of its range and 2.3% above our forecast. Ad prices rose 14% and ad impressions 10% from a year earlier. A $9.9B charge for the state attorneys general settlement cut reported operating margin to 20%; without it, earnings per share would have been $7.40.
For the fourth quarter the company guides sales of $73B to $76B, with currency about a 1% drag, and full-year expenses of $175B to $179B. It expects a tax rate of 15% to 17% for the quarter.
All six models put the quarter's sales between $74.5B and $75.6B, an average of $75.0B, about 16% above the third quarter. Most lean to the upper half of the range because 2026 quarters have landed near or above the top of the company's ranges.
Costs implied by the full-year guide give an operating margin near 34% and earnings per share of about $8.23. Capital spending near $52.9B leaves free cash flow around −$14.0B for the quarter.
The models differ more on earnings than on sales. Sol and Grok let the quarter miss or beat the company's range; GLM and Opus keep their ranges close to it.
About $8.23 per share: sales near $75.0B, costs implied by the full-year expense guide, a tax rate near 16%, and today's share count before the planned share dividend.
Outlook against result
Q2 2025+4.4% above$42.5B–$45.5B → $47.5Bguided “$42.5-45.5 billion”
Q3 2025+1.5% above$47.5B–$50.5B → $51.2Bguided “$47.5-50.5 billion”
Q4 2025+1.5% above$56.0B–$59.0B → $59.9Bguided “$56-59 billion”
Q1 2026inside$53.5B–$56.5B → $56.3Bguided “$53.5-56.5 billion”
Q2 2026inside$58.0B–$61.0B → $60.8Bguided “$58-61 billion”
Q3 2026+0.9% above$61.0B–$64.0B → $64.6Bguided “$61-64 billion”
Q4 2026inside$73.0B–$76.0B → $75.0Bguided “$73-76 billion”
Each outlook is the one the company gave before the quarter. The last row is the models' forecast.
The quarter forecast, line by line
The lines as the company's statement shows them. The forecast columns are the average of the models, line by line. Sales growth is the change on the same quarter a year earlier. Earnings per share is the headline's: the company's own for the reported quarter, and for a forecast quarter worked out from the averaged lines with the company's adjustments.
What it rests on
- Fourth-quarter sales outlook
- $73B to $76B, with currency an approximately 1% headwind
We expect fourth quarter 2026 total revenue to be in the range of $73-76 billion. Our guidance assumes foreign currency is an approximately 1% headwind to year-over-year total revenue growth, based on current exchange rates.
Third-quarter 2026 earnings release - Full-year expense outlook
- $175B to $179B, raised to include the $9.9B legal charge
We are raising our expense outlook to incorporate the $9.9 billion charge related to legal proceedings recognized in the third quarter. We now expect full year 2026 total expenses to be in the range of $175-179 billion.
Third-quarter 2026 earnings release - Fourth-quarter tax rate
- Between 15% and 17%
Absent any changes to our tax landscape, we expect our fourth quarter 2026 tax rate to be between 15-17%.
Third-quarter 2026 earnings release - Third-quarter ad prices
- Average price per ad up 14% from a year earlier
•Average price per ad – Average price per ad increased by 14% year-over-year.
Third-quarter 2026 earnings release - Third-quarter adjusted earnings
- $7.40 per share without the legal charge, against $3.83 reported
•Diluted EPS of $3.83 would have increased by $3.57 to $7.40.
Third-quarter 2026 earnings release
Low and high
Basethe middle forecast
Key assumptions
Sales land in the upper half of the $73B to $76B guide, about $75.0B. 2026 quarters landed near or above the top of the company's ranges; third-quarter sales reached $64.6B.4 of 6
- Opus 5.5I put fourth quarter revenue near the top, about 75.6 billion
- GPT-6.1 SolMy middle is $75.1 billion, modestly above the midpoint
- Grok 4.7the middle is set at 75 billion dollars, in the upper half
- Gemini 4 Argonfourth quarter 2026 revenue reaches 75 billion dollars (near the upper half of management's 73 billion to 76 billion dollar guidance range)
Costs near $49.7B, within what the full-year expense guide leaves for the quarter. Nine-month costs were about $127B, so the guide leaves roughly $48B to $52B.4 of 6
- Opus 5.5I used 49.3 billion, a little below the midpoint
- Grok 4.7fourth-quarter costs land near 50 billion dollars at the midpoint
- GLM 5.3the expense outlook implies Q4 costs of roughly $48–52B
- Muse Wonderimply fourth quarter costs near 50 billion
No new legal charge; the $9.9B settlement accrual stays in the third quarter. Extra payments depend on YouTube and TikTok joining, which the company does not treat as probable.4 of 6
- Opus 5.5I left that out of the middle
- Muse WonderI assumed no extra accrual in the base case
- Grok 4.7so they are not in the sales or earnings middle
- GLM 5.3neither Q4-2026 nor 2027 carries a repeat
Tax rate of about 16%, the middle of the company's 15% to 17% guide. The third quarter's 24% rate came from the non-deductible legal charge, which does not repeat.3 of 6
- Grok 4.7The middle uses 16 percent.
- Opus 5.5Tax 16%.
- Muse WonderThe guided fourth quarter tax rate of fifteen to seventeen percent sets the quarter plan tax line.
Capital spending near $52.9B, leaving free cash flow around −$14.0B. Full-year spending of $135B to $145B leaves a very heavy final quarter.3 of 6
- GPT-6.1 SolFourth-quarter purchases are about $52.9 billion.
- Muse Wonderfourth quarter capital spending near 52 to 54 billion including finance leases
- GLM 5.3implying a very heavy Q4
If all of this happens
$75.0Bsales
$8.23adjusted EPS
$52.9BCapital spending
−$14.0BFree cash flow
Cash walk not supplied by every model.
Lowabout 1 chance in 10 of worse
What the low case assumes
Holiday ad demand weakens under high energy prices and weak consumer confidence. Advertiser spending dipped when the Iran conflict began, and oil prices remain very high.3 of 6
- Grok 4.7Marketer budgets shrink as high energy prices and soft consumer confidence persist or worsen
- Opus 5.5advertiser demand under high oil prices and weak consumer sentiment
- Gemini 4 ArgonMacroeconomic deceleration from high oil prices and elevated interest rates reducing digital advertising demand
Sales miss the bottom of the $73B to $76B range. Grok and Sol set their lows outside the guide as a one-in-ten miss.3 of 6
- Grok 4.7The low and high sit outside the guide, as a 1-in-10 miss or beat.
- GPT-6.1 SolThe approximate 10th-to-90th-percentile sales range is $71.5 billion to $78.5 billion, wider than management's planning range.
- Muse Wonderlow and high allowing a small miss or beat
A new legal charge lands, which adjusted earnings would not exclude. Only the named settlement accrual is excluded; youth-related trials are scheduled in coming months.3 of 6
- Opus 5.5any new charge would fall in my low case
- Grok 4.7a new legal accrual of several billion dollars is booked
- Muse Wonderallowed for new legal charges in the low case
If all of this happens
$72.2Bsales · −4% vs base
$6.87EPS · −17% vs base
Sales would have to fall to about $72.2B, 3.7% below the base, with earnings near $6.87. That needs holiday ad budgets to give way under high oil prices and weak consumer mood, or a new legal charge that adjusted earnings would not exclude. Grok goes furthest, to $70.8B and $6.00, because it lets sales miss the company's range outright while capital spending stays at the top of its guide.
Advertiser spending already dipped when the Iran conflict began in March 2026, yet third-quarter sales still grew 26%.
The six lows run from $70.8B (Grok 4.7) to $73.6B (Opus 5.5).
First signA new legal accrual or softer holiday ad pricing disclosed before the quarter closes on December 31, 2026.
Highabout 1 chance in 10 of better
What the high case assumes
Holiday ad demand stays as strong as in the third quarter. Ad prices rose 14% in the third quarter on ad performance gains.3 of 6
- Grok 4.7Holiday advertising would have to stay as strong as the third quarter
- Opus 5.5sustained high-20s ad growth from better ranking and new surfaces
- Gemini 4 ArgonAccelerated advertising conversion lifts from generative retrieval models
Costs land at the low end of the expense guide. The May headcount cut left employees down 12% from the second quarter.2 of 6
- Grok 4.7spending stays at the low end of the guide
- Opus 5.5cost discipline after the headcount reduction
Tax rate at the low end of the 15% to 17% guide. The company guides that range absent changes to its tax landscape.1 of 6
- Grok 4.7The tax rate stays at the low end of the guided range
If all of this happens
$77.4Bsales · +3% vs base
$9.57EPS · +16% vs base
Sales would have to reach about $77.4B, 3.2% above the base, with earnings near $9.57. Holiday advertising would need to stay as strong as the third quarter, with costs and tax at the low end of the guides. Sol goes furthest, to $78.5B and $10.50, because it sets its high as a beat beyond the company's range.
Third-quarter sales of $64.6B beat the top of the company's $61B to $64B range.
The six highs run from $76.4B (GLM 5.3) to $78.5B (GPT-6.1 Sol).
First signHoliday ad pricing through December 31, 2026, then sales above $76B at the next report.
Watch
Sales above $76B would point higher; sales at or below $73B, or a new legal charge, would point lower. The next report also brings the first-quarter outlook and the 2027 expense and capital spending plans.
Q1 2027 · the quarter after
Sales
PricedIn$68.6B$64.2B – $72.9B
$64.2B$68.6B$72.9B
adjusted EPS
PricedIn$6.13$4.70 – $7.65
$4.70$6.13$7.65
Middlethe forecast80% range1 in 10 chance below this bar, 1 in 10 above it. These are the low and high printed by each number.
The models agree on a seasonal dip, from 6.3% to 11% below the fourth quarter. Opus, lowest on sales at $67.6B, holds that 'the first quarter is seasonally the weakest for revenue while costs stay near fourth quarter levels.' Grok, highest at $70.2B, sees 'growth slows but stays near 20 percent in 2027'. On earnings Sol is lowest, $5.11, because 'faster model efficiency is not assumed to reduce total serving expense when usage grows.'
First-quarter 2027 sales of about $68.6B, the usual seasonal dip after the holiday quarter but well above a year earlier.
Sales$68.6B$64.2B – $72.9B · +22% on Q1 2026 ($56.3B)
Adjusted EPS$6.13$4.70 – $7.65 · −41% on Q1 2026 ($10.44)
Investment and cash generation
Capital spending: not supplied by every model
Free cash flow: not supplied by every model
Free cash flow: operating cash flow less capital spending.
The company has not yet given a first-quarter 2027 outlook; it will at its next report. A year earlier it guided $53.5B to $56.5B and reported $56.3B, near the top.
The models expect sales of about $68.6B, 8.5% below the fourth quarter, the normal pattern after holiday advertising. Their middles run from $67.6B for Opus to $70.2B for Grok.
Costs stay near fourth-quarter levels while sales dip, so operating margin falls to about 28% and earnings per share to about $6.13. A year earlier the company earned $10.44, lifted by a one-time tax benefit; without it, $7.31.
Earnings are where the models part. Sol is lowest at $5.11, seeing serving costs and depreciation rise fast; GLM is highest at $7.25, with a margin held up by narrowing Reality Labs losses and a smaller workforce.
The planned share dividend, which works like a two-for-one split, is not applied: all per-share figures stay on today's share count.
About $6.13 per share: sales near $68.6B, an operating margin near 28%, a tax rate near 16%, and no repeat of last year's first-quarter tax benefit.
What it rests on
- Last year's first-quarter outlook
- $53.5B to $56.5B; the quarter came in at $56.3B
We expect our first quarter 2026 total revenue to be in the range of $53.5 billion to $56.5 billion.
Fourth-quarter 2025 earnings call - Last year's tax benefit
- Without it, first-quarter 2026 earnings would have been $7.31 per share
Absent the tax benefit, our net income and EPS would have been $18.7 billion and $7.31, respectively.
First-quarter 2026 earnings call - Muse serving costs
- Costly to run now; company expects over tenfold efficiency gain within a year
In the near term, Muse is very compute intensive to run, but we expect to improve its cost efficiency by more than 10x in the next year, which will enable it to be profitable once the revenue lines are at scale.
Third-quarter 2026 earnings call - Capacity plans
- Plans geared to maximizing 2026 and 2027 computing capacity
Consequently, our current plans are geared towards maximizing 2026 and 2027 capacity.
Second-quarter 2026 earnings call
Low and high
Basethe middle forecast
Key assumptions
Sales dip about 8.5% from the fourth quarter, the normal seasonal pattern. Holiday advertising peaks in the fourth quarter; the first quarter is usually the softest.3 of 6
- Opus 5.5the first quarter is seasonally the weakest for revenue
- GLM 5.3why Q1 typically dips 5–7% from Q4
- Gemini 4 Argonan eight to twelve percent seasonal pullback in the first quarter
Costs stay near fourth-quarter levels, so operating margin falls to about 28%. Depreciation and cloud costs from the capacity build keep rising into 2027.3 of 6
- Opus 5.5put the first quarter 2027 margin near 28%
- GPT-6.1 SolLarger model-serving costs and depreciation offset much of the advertising growth
- Muse WonderCosts stay very high as capacity built in 2026 and 2027 comes into use
No repeat of the first-quarter 2026 tax benefit; tax rate near 16%. The $8.03B benefit was one-time; without it first-quarter 2026 earnings were $7.31.3 of 6
- Grok 4.7That benefit does not repeat
- GPT-6.1 SolThe benefit does not recur in my 2027 or 2028 middle.
- GLM 5.3about 16% for 2027–28
Per-share figures stay on today's share count; the planned share dividend is not applied. The stock dividend was not paid at the cutoff.3 of 6
- Opus 5.5every per-share figure stays on today's roughly 2.57-2.62 billion diluted shares
- Grok 4.7no share count and no earnings per share figure is split
- GLM 5.3every share count and per-share figure in my forecast stays on the current (pre-split) share basis
If all of this happens
$68.6Bsales
$6.13adjusted EPS
Lowabout 1 chance in 10 of worse
What the low case assumes
Ad impressions and prices grow well below the recent trend. Third-quarter impressions rose only 10%, and part of the 14% price gain came from easier comparisons.3 of 6
- Muse WonderAdvertising impressions and price growth fall well below the recent trend
- GPT-6.1 SolWeaker ad pricing and engagement growth
- Opus 5.5price per ad growth falls to low single digits
Serving and depreciation costs rise faster than sales. Data center leases not yet begun totaled about $278.99B in June 2026.3 of 6
- GPT-6.1 SolComputing costs, legal exposure and financing pressure
- Muse WonderInfrastructure and legal costs rise faster than revenue
- Gemini 4 ArgonHigh fixed depreciation and multi-year third-party cloud commitments weighing on operating margins
High energy prices and weak consumer confidence cut advertiser budgets. Advertiser spending dipped when the Iran conflict began in March 2026.3 of 6
- Opus 5.5advertiser demand under high oil prices and weak consumer sentiment
- Grok 4.7Marketer budgets shrink as high energy prices and soft consumer confidence persist or worsen
- Gemini 4 ArgonMacroeconomic deceleration from high oil prices and elevated interest rates reducing digital advertising demand
If all of this happens
$64.2Bsales · −6% vs base
$4.70EPS · −23% vs base
Sales would have to fall to about $64.2B, 6.4% below the base, with earnings near $4.70. Ad impressions and prices would need to grow well below trend while serving and depreciation costs keep climbing. Muse goes furthest on sales, to $62.0B, with ad growth falling well below the recent trend; Sol goes furthest on earnings, to $3.40, because it requires cost and tax pressure on top of weak sales.
Ad impression growth already slowed from 19% to 14% to 10% over the first three quarters of 2026.
The six lows run from $62.0B (Muse Wonder) to $66.5B (GLM 5.3).
First signA first-quarter 2027 outlook below about $68B at the company's next report, whose date is not yet given.
Highabout 1 chance in 10 of better
What the high case assumes
Ad impressions and prices both keep growing at double-digit rates. Third-quarter ad prices rose 14% and impressions 10%.3 of 6
- Grok 4.7Ad impressions and prices both keep growing at double-digit rates through 2027
- Opus 5.5impressions low-teens, price per ad low-to-mid teens
- GPT-6.1 SolSustained strong advertising conversions and pricing
Muse, business agents and subscriptions bring paid revenue sooner. Over 10 million people set up Muse in six weeks; subscriptions and trials passed 15 million.3 of 6
- GLM 5.3Muse scaling from 10 million setups toward a paid, commerce-monetized network
- Muse WonderMuse, business agents and model services become material paid revenue in 2027 and 2028
- Gemini 4 ArgonFast global scaling and high-margin commerce and subscription monetization of the Muse personal agent
Compute efficiency improves sharply, holding costs down. The company expects more than tenfold cost-efficiency gains over the next year.3 of 6
- GLM 5.3Compute cost efficiency improving more than tenfold as promised
- Muse WonderCompute efficiency improves more than tenfold
- Gemini 4 ArgonTenfold improvements in artificial intelligence inference efficiency
If all of this happens
$72.9Bsales · +6% vs base
$7.65EPS · +25% vs base
Sales would have to reach about $72.9B, 6.2% above the base, with earnings near $7.65. Ad growth would need to hold near holiday strength into the new year, paid products would add revenue, and compute efficiency would hold costs down. Grok goes furthest on sales, to $74.2B, because ad impressions and prices both keep growing at double-digit rates; Grok and GLM reach $8.30 on earnings.
The first quarter of 2026 fell 6.0% from the fourth quarter of 2025; a shallower dip would point to the high case.
The six highs run from $71.0B (Opus 5.5) to $74.2B (Grok 4.7).
First signA first-quarter 2027 outlook implying growth of 26% or more at the company's next report.
Watch
The first-quarter outlook at the next report: a range centered above $68.6B points higher, below about $68B points lower. Also watch the 2027 expense plan and any paid revenue from Muse.