How the company works
What it sells, how it makes money, and the anatomy of the extremes: what has to break for the result to land far from the forecast, either way. In Moderna's own words, from its annual report for 2025.
Moderna makes medicines from messenger RNA (mRNA), the molecule that tells the body's cells which protein to make. It sells three vaccines: Spikevax and mNEXSPIKE against COVID, and mRESVIA against RSV. Behind them are 25 development candidates in clinical studies, in infectious disease, cancer and rare disease.
How it makes money
In the U.S., Moderna sells its vaccines mostly to wholesalers and distributors, and less often directly to retailers and healthcare providers; elsewhere it sells to governments and international organizations. Total revenue was $1.94B in 2025, down 40% from $3.24B, because fewer people took a COVID vaccine and government purchase agreements ended. COVID vaccines were $1.81B of the $1.82B of net product sales. The U.S. bought $1,165M, Europe $50M and the rest of the world $603M. Three customers each bought more than a tenth of revenue: FFF Enterprises 15%, Public Works and Government Services Canada 13% and Cardinal Health 11%. Moderna lost $2.82B in 2025, $7.26 a share.
What it sells
| Revenue by product | 2025 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| COVID vaccinesSpikevax, and mNEXSPIKE, launched in the third quarter of 2025, now the company's leading product in the U.S. retail channel. | $1.81B | $3.08B |
| RSV vaccinemRESVIA, for adults aged 60 and older, and for adults aged 18 to 59 at increased risk. | $8M | $25M |
| Other revenueGrants, collaborations, licensing and royalties, and payments from governments to keep manufacturing ready. | $126M | $127M |
Revenue by product as the annual report prints it; COVID vaccines include Spikevax and mNEXSPIKE.
Unit economics
Each vaccine season is made ahead: Moderna produces before the season against a forecast of demand, and what does not sell is written off. Cost of sales was $868M, 48% of net product sales, including inventory write-downs of $291M and unused manufacturing capacity and wind-down costs of $93M. Gross product sales of $3.30B became $1.82B net after $1.49B of wholesaler chargebacks, discounts, returns and rebates. Research and development, at $3.13B, cost more than total revenue, and selling, general and administrative cost $1.02B. Operating activities used $1.87B of cash. Moderna ended 2025 with $8.1 billion of cash and investments, including a $600 million draw on its term loan.
Competitive position
Moderna names its mRNA platform and its skills across mRNA technology, drug discovery, development and manufacturing as its advantage. It competes mainly with Pfizer and BioNTech, whose COVID vaccine is also made from mRNA, and with Sanofi and Novavax; in RSV it entered a market already held by two larger competitors, Pfizer and GSK. A competitor's contract with the European Commission keeps it out of many European COVID markets until the end of 2026. The governments of the UK, Canada and Australia have multi-year commitments to buy mRNA products from the plants Moderna built there.
Biggest cost inputs
Research and development: $3.13B in 2025, down 31%, mostly on lower clinical trial and clinical manufacturing spending. Making vaccines ahead of each season, with write-downs when demand falls short of the forecast. Royalties to third parties: $88M in 2025. Raw materials and excipients, some from a single source and new to the pharmaceutical industry. A workforce of approximately 4,700 full-time employees in 18 countries.
Anatomy of a large upside
- mNEXSPIKE and the government plants lift sales. The company expects product sales to return to growth in 2026 on the uptake of mNEXSPIKE in the U.S. and a full year of sales under its partnerships with governments, and the European Commission contract that keeps it out of many markets ends at the end of 2026.
- The pipeline becomes products. Intismeran, with Merck, is in eight Phase 2 and Phase 3 trials after five-year melanoma data, and its flu, flu and COVID, norovirus and rare disease candidates are under review or in late-stage studies. Each approval adds sales to a manufacturing network already built.
Anatomy of a large downside
- COVID vaccination keeps falling. Net product sales fell 42% in 2025 as COVID vaccine demand declined. Because production is planned before each season, lower demand also brings inventory write-downs and charges for unused capacity, as it did in 2025 and 2024.
- Regulators or patent courts go against it. Regulators decide each year which vaccines and populations are recommended, and the flu vaccine filing already met a Refusal-to-File letter. GSK has sued in the U.S. and Europe over the lipid formulation of the COVID and RSV vaccines, seeking money and injunctions.
Written from Moderna's annual report for the year ended December 31, 2025. The upside and downside describe conditional business outcomes drawn from that report; the quarter's forecast and its cases are on the forecast pages.