Q3 2026 · the quarter MRNA reports
Sales
PricedIn$0.85B$0.68B – $1.06B
$0.68B$0.79B$0.85B$0.95B$1.06B
diluted EPS
PricedIn−$1.10−$1.70 – −$0.65
−$1.70−$1.35−$1.10−$0.90−$0.65
Middlethe forecast50% range1 in 4 chance the result comes in below this bar, 1 in 4 above it. Half the time it lands inside.80% range1 in 10 chance below this line, 1 in 10 above it. These are the low and high printed by each number.The roomThe lowest 1-in-10 low and the highest 1-in-10 high among the five analysts, as each handed them in before the round, with who holds each.
All five analysts take the company's phasing at face value, so third-quarter sales sit between sales of $840M and sales of $900M. They part on cost: Analyst B loads far more product cost and selling expense into the quarter, while Analyst E trims research spending and expects the smallest loss.
The analysts expect third-quarter 2026 sales of about $850M, with the fall vaccine season carrying the quarter.
Sales$0.85B−16% on Q3 2025 ($1.02B)50% range$0.79B – $0.95B80% range$0.68B – $1.06BThe room$0.63B – $1.15B D low · C high
Diluted EPS−$1.10+116% on Q3 2025 (−$0.51)50% range−$1.35 – −$0.9080% range−$1.70 – −$0.65The room−$1.77 – $0.00 C low · E high
Investment and cash generation
Base case
Capital spending$65.0M
Free cash flow−$1.92B
Free cash flow: operating cash flow less capital spending.
Capital spending of $65.0M goes mainly to the Norwood fill-and-finish plant and equipment at Marlborough for the cancer therapy; neither adds sales this quarter. Free cash flow here is operating cash flow less capital spending. The PricedIn free cash flow of −$1.9B comes from the July litigation payment, which Analyst A counts at −$876M of operating cash, and a seasonal receivables build of −$714M collected in the fourth quarter.4 of 5
- Analyst AOperating cash outflow of 876 million dollars for the Arbutus/Genevant settlement paid in July 2026, equal to the 950 million dollar lump-sum payment less the 74 million dollar capitalized intangible asset recorded on the settlement date
- Analyst BMy quarterly allocation, weighted to the disclosed Norwood fill/finish project and ongoing Marlborough intismeran equipment; Merck funds half of intismeran investments.
- Analyst EPay operating portion already charged in first quarter, rather than expensing it again.
- Analyst DSeason shipments at quarter end raise receivables, as in prior third quarters.
Moderna's sales swing with the fall respiratory season. The first half of 2026 was small, and the third quarter is when American pharmacies and overseas governments take most of their COVID vaccine. PricedIn third-quarter sales of $850M would be a sales change of −16% from the same quarter a year earlier, as fewer Americans get vaccinated.
The company's own plan sets the shape. In July it kept its growth target for the year, split roughly evenly between American and international revenue, and said a little over half of second-half revenue would land in the third quarter. It counts no flu or combination vaccine sales this year.
Costs set the loss. The PricedIn quarter carries research spending of $790M and cost of sales of $240M, for an operating margin of −56% and GAAP earnings per share of −$1.10. The litigation charge was booked in the first quarter, so only its cash leaves now.
The analysts are close on sales, from sales of $840M to sales of $900M, but further apart on earnings per share, from −$1.42 to earnings per share of −$0.83. The gap comes from how much product cost and seasonal selling expense each loads into the quarter, not from the size of the season.
GAAP earnings per share of −$1.10 come from the PricedIn net loss of −$440M over roughly four hundred million shares; options and convertible notes are left out because they would shrink a loss.
Sales by quarter
Q1 2025$0.11B−35%
Q2 2025$0.14B−41%
Q3 2025$1.02B−45%
Q4 2025$0.68B−30%
Q1 2026$0.39B+260%
Q2 2026$0.14B+2%
Q3 2026$0.85B−16%
Each percent is on the same quarter a year earlier. The last row is the PricedIn forecast.
The quarter forecast, line by line
The lines as the company's statement shows them. The forecast columns are the tab's PricedIn forecast, one analyst's whole plan, the analyst nearest the middle of the five on both sales and earnings per share, so the lines add up to the numbers above. Sales growth is the change on the same quarter a year earlier. Earnings per share is the headline's: the company's own for the reported quarter, and for a forecast quarter that analyst's own, worked from its lines with the company's adjustments.
The litigation settlement, part by part
Lump-sum payment, paid July 2026$0.95B
Charged to cost of sales, first quarter$0.88B
Licence capitalised$0.07B
Licence value left, 30 June 2026$0.07B
Possible further payment if the appeal fails$1.30B
Where each number comes from
- Lump-sum payment, paid July 2026
we agreed to make a lump sum payment of $950 million, which is payable in the third quarter of 2026.
- Charged to cost of sales, first quarter
we recorded $876 million in cost of sales and capitalized $74 million as an intangible asset on the settlement date
- Licence capitalised
we recorded $876 million in cost of sales and capitalized $74 million as an intangible asset on the settlement date
- Licence value left, 30 June 2026
As of June 30, 2026, the carrying value of the intangible asset was $66 million.
- Possible further payment if the appeal fails
could be required to make an additional payment of up to $1.3 billion depending on the outcome of the appeal.
The July payment splits between an expense already booked and a licence; a further payment depends on the appeal.
What it rests on
- Third-quarter share
- A little over half of second-half revenue expected in the third quarter
We continue to expect a roughly 50-50 split between US and international revenue for the full year, and we expect third quarter revenue will represent approximately 55% of our second half revenue.
Second-quarter 2026 earnings call - Settlement paid
- The settlement lump sum was paid in July, landing in third-quarter cash
In July, we paid $950 million related to the litigation settlement announced earlier this year, which will be reflected in our third quarter cash balance.
Second-quarter 2026 earnings call - Year growth target
- Growth target for 2026 total revenue reaffirmed in July
We still expect total revenue to grow up to 10% in 2026 with the geographic mix and quarterly phasing I previously mentioned.
Second-quarter 2026 earnings call - Last third quarter's costs
- Cost of sales was a small share of product sales in third-quarter 2025
Cost of sales for the third quarter was $207 million, representing 21% net product sales for the quarter.
Third-quarter 2025 earnings call - Biggest swing
- Management calls a smaller American decline the biggest upside swing
And so the biggest upside swing is if it is not as big a decline as we projected, then we should have upside in the US.
Second-quarter 2026 earnings call
Scenarios Explained: Base, Low, and High
Basethe middle forecast
Q3-2026
Sales$0.85B
Diluted EPS−$1.10
Capital spending$65.0M
Free cash flow−$1.92B
FCF walk and spending detail
Forecast dollars. Free cash flow is operating cash flow less capital spending.
| Net loss | −$440M |
|---|
| Stock-based compensation and depreciation and amortization | $180M |
|---|
| Arbutus litigation settlement payment | −$876M |
|---|
| Seasonal accounts receivable build and working capital movements | −$714M |
|---|
| Operating cash flow | −$1.85B |
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| Less capital spending | −$65.0M |
|---|
| Free cash flow | −$1.92B |
|---|
- Net loss
- Forecast Q3 2026 base GAAP net loss on 850 million dollars of revenue.
- Stock-based compensation and depreciation and amortization
- Forecast Q3 2026 non-cash stock-based compensation (~115 million dollars) and depreciation and amortization (~65 million dollars).
- Arbutus litigation settlement payment
- Operating cash outflow of 876 million dollars for the Arbutus/Genevant settlement paid in July 2026, equal to the 950 million dollar lump-sum payment less the 74 million dollar capitalized intangible asset recorded on the settlement date (per Note 12 of the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q, Moderna recorded 876 million dollars in cost of sales and capitalized 74 million dollars as an intangible asset on the settlement date, while 2 million dollars of Q1 amortization brought total Q1 cost-of-sales expense to 878 million dollars).
- Seasonal accounts receivable build and working capital movements
- Third-quarter fall vaccine shipments to US wholesalers and international customers build accounts receivable at quarter-end prior to fourth-quarter cash collection, while deferred revenue from advance deposits is recognized.
Capital spending
We model Q3 2026 base capital spending of 65 million dollars (consistent with 99 million dollars in the first half and full-year guidance of 200 to 300 million dollars), allocating 26 million dollars to building improvements, 24 million dollars to manufacturing and laboratory equipment, and 9 million dollars to computer equipment and software, with 6 million dollars unallocated for leasehold improvements, furniture, and construction timing.
| Building and building improvements | $26.0M |
|---|
| Manufacturing and laboratory equipment | $24.0M |
|---|
| Computer equipment and software | $9.00M |
|---|
| Unallocated capital spending | $6.00M |
|---|
| Total capital spending | $65.0M |
|---|
Building and building improvements Forecast Q3 2026 spending on building and facility improvements, primarily for the Norwood drug product fill-finish facility.
Building and building improvements 1,216 1,183
Manufacturing and laboratory equipment Forecast Q3 2026 spending on manufacturing and laboratory equipment.
Manufacturing and laboratory equipment 550 542
Computer equipment and software Forecast Q3 2026 spending on computer equipment and software.
Computer equipment and software 205 196
Cash Position: Cash, cash equivalents and investments as of June 30, 2026, were $6.9 billion, compared to $7.5 billion as of March 31, 2026. The decrease primarily reflected cash used to fund operations, continued investment in research and development and advancement of the Company’s pipeline. The Company subsequently paid $950 million in July 2026 related to the litigation settlement announced in the first quarter of 2026.
On March 3, 2026, we entered into a settlement agreement with Arbutus Biopharma Corporation (Arbutus) and Genevant Sciences GmbH (Genevant, and with Arbutus, Arbutus/Genevant) resolving all litigation worldwide, including between the parties in the U.S. District Court for the District of Delaware. The settlement resolves all worldwide Arbutus/Genevant litigation related to Spikevax and mRESVIA and provides certainty going forward for our full infectious disease portfolio, including mNEXSPIKE, mCOMBRIAX and our future vaccine pipeline, with no future royalties owed. Under the terms of the agreement, we agreed to make a lump sum payment of $950 million, which is payable in the third quarter of 2026. In the three months ended March 31, 2026, we recorded $876 million in cost of sales and capitalized $74 million as an intangible asset on the settlement date, representing the estimated value attributed to a license to certain intellectual property rights, which is being amortized on a straight-line basis over an estimated useful life of approximately three years. As of June 30, 2026, the carrying value of the intangible asset was $66 million. Consistent with the terms of the settlement agreement, we have appealed the District Court’s decision related to 28 U.S.C. § 1498 to the Federal Circuit Court of Appeals and could be required to make an additional payment of up to $1.3 billion depending on the outcome of the appeal. As of June 30, 2026, no accrual has been recorded for this amount as a loss is not considered probable.
Capital Expenditures: Capital expenditures for 2026 are expected to be $0.2 to $0.3 billion.
Three ways the base case happens
These levers explain the outcome together.
- The American COVID season shrinks about as the company planned. Management planned American revenue to fall this year, offset by contracted international deliveries. The American fall season decides most of the quarter's product sales. If uptake falls roughly as provisioned, sales land near the PricedIn number and the loss stays near plan; any shortfall flows almost fully into the loss because costs are fixed in the short run.
WatchPharmacy vaccination counts through September and October 2026, and the American revenue line in the 6 November 2026 report.
Analyst reasoning
- Analyst BUS COVID retail market down roughly 20 percent as provisioned, offset by mNEXSPIKE share gains
- Analyst AWe factored management's baseline planning assumption of an approximate 20 percent decline in US COVID vaccine revenue to roughly 1.0 billion dollars, offset by international growth to roughly 1.08 billion dollars, into our 2026 revenue forecast.
- Contracted international deliveries arrive inside the quarter. Long-term government partnerships in the United Kingdom, Canada and Australia carry the international half of the year. These shipments are the most certain part of the quarter. Timing matters more than demand: a delivery that slips into October moves sales and loss from the third quarter into the fourth without changing the year.
WatchInternational revenue in the third-quarter release against the contracted pace.
Analyst reasoning
- Analyst CContracted international partnerships and second-half seasonality
- Analyst EContracted international shipments and seasonal collections
- Analyst Dinternational partnership deliveries (U.K., Canada, Australia)
- Costs land on the July plan, with the settlement already expensed. In July the company lowered its research and cost-of-sales estimates and kept selling costs flat. With research near $790M, the quarter's loss rests on gross margin. The settlement payment leaves cash this quarter but does not touch earnings, because it was charged in the first quarter.
WatchResearch and selling expense lines in the 6 November 2026 release against the July plan.
Analyst reasoning
- Analyst B2026 cost targets hit: cost of sales about $1.7 billion including the litigation charge, R&D about $2.9 billion, SG&A about $1 billion
- Analyst CManufacturing productivity and lower research spending
- Analyst EPay operating portion already charged in first quarter, rather than expensing it again.
Sales near $850M need the American fall season to shrink about as the company planned while contracted deliveries to the United Kingdom, Canada and Australia arrive on time. Costs must follow the July plan, with research near $790M and cost of sales near $240M, for an operating margin of −56% and earnings per share of −$1.10.
Highabout 1 chance in 10 of better
Q3-2026
Sales$1.06B+25% vs base
Diluted EPS−$0.65−41% vs base
Capital spending$55.0M
Free cash flow−$1.71B
FCF walk and spending detail
Forecast dollars. Free cash flow is operating cash flow less capital spending.
| net loss (high case) | −$260M |
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| stock-based compensation, depreciation and investment amortization | $203M |
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| litigation settlement payment | −$950M |
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| accounts receivable build | −$900M |
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| other working capital (deferred revenue, inventory, payables, accruals) | $250M |
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| Operating cash flow | −$1.66B |
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| Less capital spending | −$55.0M |
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| Free cash flow | −$1.71B |
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- net loss (high case)
- High-case quarter loss, loss per share about -$0.65.
- stock-based compensation, depreciation and investment amortization
- Run-rate.
- litigation settlement payment
- Paid in July.
- accounts receivable build
- Larger shipments mean a larger receivable build, collected in the fourth quarter.
- other working capital (deferred revenue, inventory, payables, accruals)
- More inventory drawdown.
Capital spending
Remainder not split by the company.
| fill/finish capacity | $20.0M |
|---|
| Unallocated capital spending | $35.0M |
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| Total capital spending | $55.0M |
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fill/finish capacity Assumed share for Norwood.
This guidance includes our previously announced investment in building our own fill/finish capacity in the United States at our existing site in Norwood, Massachusetts.
In July, we paid $950 million related to the litigation settlement announced earlier this year, which will be reflected in our third quarter cash balance.
Three ways the high case happens
These levers explain the outcome together; each is not a separate one-in-ten event.
- American vaccination holds near last year's level. Management says a flat second half would already lift 2026 growth above its target. Every dose above plan adds high-margin sales against fixed costs, so the loss narrows faster than sales rise; a larger receivables build also deepens the quarter's cash outflow before fourth-quarter collection.
WatchSeptember and October 2026 pharmacy data flat on the prior season.
Analyst reasoning
- Analyst BUS vaccination rates roughly flat rather than down 20 percent
- Analyst Dflat U.S. vaccination versus 2025
- Analyst ABetter-than-expected United States fall COVID vaccination demand combined with dominant retail market share for the next-generation COVID vaccine
- mNEXSPIKE gains share at a higher price. The newer vaccine made up over half of Moderna's American COVID volume in its launch season. Better mix lifts price per dose and gross margin, adding to earnings without extra fixed cost.
WatchRetail market share and the mNEXSPIKE mix given on the 6 November 2026 call.
Analyst reasoning
- Analyst BmNEXSPIKE keeps taking share and commands its premium price
- Analyst Dnext-generation COVID share gains
- Analyst EHigher vaccine uptake and favorable product mix
- International partners take deliveries at the top of contracts. Partnerships in the United Kingdom, Canada and Australia set contracted volumes for the season. Extra international doses add sales with little added selling cost, and unit costs fall as plants run fuller.
WatchInternational revenue above plan in the third-quarter release.
Analyst reasoning
- Analyst Ainternational strategic partnerships deliver at the top of contracted ranges
- Analyst CStronger vaccine volumes, pricing and retail share
- Analyst EHigh manufacturing utilization and expense discipline
Sales near $1.1B and earnings per share near −$0.65 need the American season to hold close to last year, mNEXSPIKE to keep gaining share at its higher price, and international partners to take deliveries at the top of their contracts. Analyst E goes furthest on earnings, to $0.00 per share, because its high case also assumes a share buyback early in the quarter that shrinks the share count; no buyback has been announced.
Management said a flat second half against last year would already put growth above its target, and called the size of the American market the biggest variable.
The five highs run from $0.98B (Analyst B) to $1.15B (Analyst C).
First sign6 November 2026, before the market opens: third-quarter sales well above the PricedIn number, or a raised 2026 outlook.
Lowabout 1 chance in 10 of worse
Q3-2026
Sales$0.68B−20% vs base
Diluted EPS−$1.70+55% vs base
Capital spending$55.0M
Free cash flow−$2.01B
FCF walk and spending detail
Forecast dollars. Free cash flow is operating cash flow less capital spending.
| Reported-basis forecast net loss | −$680M |
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| Stock-based compensation | $120M |
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| Depreciation and amortization | $65.0M |
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| Investment premium amortization and accretion | −$10.0M |
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| Payment of previously accrued litigation operating expense | −$876M |
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| Seasonal accounts receivable build | −$500M |
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| Inventory release | $60.0M |
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| Recognition of customer advances | −$140M |
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| Ordinary payables and expense accruals | $20.0M |
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| Net operating lease and other timing effects | −$10.0M |
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| Operating cash flow | −$1.95B |
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| Less capital spending | −$55.0M |
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| Free cash flow | −$2.01B |
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- Reported-basis forecast net loss
- Low diluted EPS of negative $1.70 on 400 million weighted common shares; loss excludes conversion shares.
- Stock-based compensation
- Forecast employee compensation, not removed from reported EPS.
- Depreciation and amortization
- Forecast non-cash charge, including license amortization.
- Investment premium amortization and accretion
- Forecast net yield-to-cash adjustment.
- Payment of previously accrued litigation operating expense
- Use latest quarterly note's $876 million operating charge. Remaining $74 million of the $950 million settlement is a licensed intangible investing payment outside this property-spending measure.
- Seasonal accounts receivable build
- Forecast shipments near quarter end awaiting collection; less build than base with lower sales.
- Inventory release
- Forecast delivery of inventories built before the season.
- Recognition of customer advances
- Forecast use of contract liabilities already collected.
- Ordinary payables and expense accruals
- Forecast seasonal purchases and clinical invoice timing, excluding settlement.
- Net operating lease and other timing effects
- Forecast lease-payment versus non-cash lease-expense difference.
Capital spending
Lower demand slows discretionary equipment timing. The remaining property purchases cannot responsibly be split among facilities and systems; this is an allocation gap, not an operating-cash plug.
| MTC campus | $35.0M |
|---|
| Marlborough, Massachusetts | $5.00M |
|---|
| Unallocated capital spending | $15.0M |
|---|
| Total capital spending | $55.0M |
|---|
MTC campus Analyst allocation to the disclosed drug-product and packaging project, not a company forecast split.
In 2025, we began construction at the MTC campus for new commercial drug product manufacturing and packaging capability to enable full end-to-end manufacturing for our mRNA medicines in the U.S.
Marlborough, Massachusetts Analyst estimate of equipment and readiness work at the existing oncology facility, not a new site.
In the second quarter of 2023, we acquired a biomanufacturing facility in Marlborough, Massachusetts.
Capital Expenditures: Capital expenditures for 2026 are expected to be $0.2 to $0.3 billion.
In July 2026, we paid the $950 million litigation settlement that was accrued as of June 30, 2026.
Three ways the low case happens
These levers explain the outcome together; each is not a separate one-in-ten event.
- American vaccination falls harder than the planned decline. The company warns vaccination rates may run below expectations because of viral evolution, medical need and consumer motivation. A weaker season cuts the year's highest-margin sales; with research and selling costs fixed, the loss widens almost dollar for dollar, and a smaller receivables build means less cash to collect in the fourth quarter.
WatchPharmacy vaccination data in September and October 2026 running well below the prior season.
Analyst reasoning
- Analyst BUS COVID retail vaccination rates fall harder than the 20 percent provisioned
- Analyst ASteeper decline in United States retail COVID vaccination rates and heightened competitive price discounting
- Analyst DU.S. COVID vaccination rates and next-generation COVID share
- International deliveries slip out of the quarter. Government shipment dates set the quarter split, and a United Kingdom delivery has moved between periods before. Slipped shipments move sales and their profit into the fourth quarter or into 2027. The year may hold up, but the third quarter shows a deeper loss.
WatchThird-quarter international revenue below the contracted pace in the 6 November 2026 release.
Analyst reasoning
- Analyst Ainternational deliveries experience timing deferrals
- Analyst CDelayed international deliveries and slower European market entry
- Analyst Binternational deliveries slip into 2027
- Costs do not flex down with weaker sales. Most research and selling spending is committed ahead of the season, and unsold doses can bring write-downs. Write-downs and idle-plant charges lift cost of sales while research and launch spending continue, so the margin worsens more than sales alone imply. Analyst C's low case carries a net loss of −$710M.
WatchInventory write-downs or unused-capacity charges named in the 6 November 2026 report.
Analyst reasoning
- Analyst CHigher research, manufacturing and launch spending
- Analyst AHigher seasonal inventory write-downs, unutilized manufacturing capacity charges, and prolonged clinical trial spending for the additional norovirus cohort and post-marketing commitments
- Analyst ELower vaccination demand and more returns
Sales near $680M and earnings per share near −$1.70 would need American vaccination to fall well past the planned decline, some international deliveries to slip into the fourth quarter, and unsold doses to bring inventory charges. Analyst D goes furthest on sales, at $630M, letting the whole season fall short of plan; Analyst C goes furthest on earnings per share, at −$1.77, adding higher research, manufacturing and launch spending to weak demand.
Seasonal shortfalls have happened before: the company says vaccination rates are hard to forecast, and last year's third quarter fell by almost half from the year before as fewer Americans were vaccinated.
The five lows run from $0.63B (Analyst D) to $0.76B (Analyst B).
First sign6 November 2026, before the market opens: third-quarter sales well short of the PricedIn number, or a cut to the company's growth target.
The odds the analysts give
Two questions each analyst answers with a probability.
Sales: the company's own normal, its year-over-year growth over the last eight quarters, −65.6% to +260.2%.
Growth above +260.2% on Q3 2025, the company's highest in eight quarters (Q1 2026)
0.5%the five: 0.1% to 0.5%
On Q3 2025's $1.02B that is third-quarter sales above $3.66B.
Growth below −65.6%, the company's lowest in eight quarters (Q4 2024)
1.5%the five: 0.5% to 3%
On Q3 2025's $1.02B that is third-quarter sales below $350M.
Together: 2% odds of a quarter outside the company's normal.
Surfaced outlier views
For Q3-2026 the five analysts sit within 5.9% of the PricedIn number on sales and within 29.1% on diluted EPS. The furthest, and why:
Analyst C · Q3-2026: sales $900M, the highest of the five (PricedIn $850M)
WhyAnalyst C puts net product sales at $855M, applying the company's phasing to a stronger full year. Its cost of sales of $250M is close to PricedIn cost of sales of $240M, so most of the extra sales fall to earnings, and interest income of $70.0M helps further.
Moderna delivers approximately its targeted growth in 2026, with $900 million in the third quarter and $737 million in the fourth.
Analyst B · Q3-2026: diluted EPS −$1.42, the lowest of the five (PricedIn −$1.10)
WhyAnalyst B loads cost of sales of $370M into the quarter, well above PricedIn cost of sales of $240M, and selling costs of $320M for the fall campaign. That leaves its operating margin at −70%, against a PricedIn operating margin of −56%, even on slightly higher sales.
Q3 plan: seasonal revenue of about $870 million against about $1.48 billion of operating expenses weighted to R&D and fall commercial spend.
Analyst D · Q3-2026: sales $840M and diluted EPS −$1.14, near the PricedIn numbers of $850M and −$1.10, by a different route
WhyAnalyst D lands near the PricedIn numbers with lower sales of $840M and heavier cost of sales of $290M, offset by research spending of $750M, below PricedIn research spending of $790M, because it expects the company to beat its research guide again.
Research spending guidance implies about $1.6 billion in the second half; given the company has cut guidance every quarter I use $1.54 billion.
The cases
The analyst with the highest 1-in-10 high argues the bull case; the one with the lowest 1-in-10 low argues the bear case. Each claim stands on a line the harness replays. The other analysts adopt a line or deny in a sentence, before their finals.
The bull case · Analyst C · Q3-2026: sales $1.15B, diluted EPS −$0.34, as the 1-in-10 high
The caseA resilient U.S. season plus international growth can exceed Moderna’s growth framework, and with about 55% of second-half revenue concentrated in the third quarter, strong mNEXSPIKE demand and partner deliveries support sales of $1.15 billion. Manufacturing productivity and disciplined annual research and administrative spending allow much of that revenue upside to reach earnings, narrowing the diluted loss to $0.34 per share.
If we are flat to last year with international growing and offsetting the US decline, then we should be above our 10% guidance, and the biggest variable at this point is just what is the size of the US market?
We continue to expect a roughly 50-50 split between US and international revenue for the full year, and we expect third quarter revenue will represent approximately 55% of our second half revenue.
Cost of sales decreased by 22% compared to the same period in 2025, primarily reflecting lower unutilized manufacturing capacity costs resulting from continued manufacturing productivity improvements and operational efficiencies.
We are also lowering our R&D expense estimate by $0.1 billion to $2.9 billion due to operational efficiencies and SG&A expenses are still expected to be approximately $1 billion, flat versus the prior year.
Verdicts: adopted by 0, denied by 4
The bear case · Analyst D · Q3-2026: sales $630M, diluted EPS −$1.70, as the 1-in-10 low
The caseThe third quarter carries most of the U.S. fall COVID season, and management itself calls the size of the U.S. decline the biggest unknown. If retail uptake falls well beyond the roughly 20% decline it planned for, third-quarter revenue could come in near $630 to $680 million rather than the roughly $840 million implied by a 55% share of the second half. Spending would still be near the guided level for the second half, so the loss per share deepens toward about -$1.70. International partnership deliveries do not cover the gap, because the U.S. is about half of the year's revenue and is concentrated in this quarter.
And so the biggest upside swing is if it is not as big a decline as we projected, then we should have upside in the US.
Vaccination rates in the future may also be lower than our expectations due to other factors, including viral evolution, medical need and consumer motivation to vaccinate.
Moderna expects approximately 55% of its second half 2026 revenue to be recognized in the third quarter.
Speaker not named: And we said that ex-US versus US would be a 50-50 split, which would then mean that our US outlook would look for a 20% decline.
We are also lowering our R&D expense estimate by $0.1 billion to $2.9 billion due to operational efficiencies and SG&A expenses are still expected to be approximately $1 billion, flat versus the prior year.
Verdicts: adopted by 0, denied by 4
Watch
The third-quarter report on 6 November 2026, before the market opens, settles this tab. Sales well above the PricedIn number or a raised growth target point higher; sales below it, inventory write-downs or a cut target point lower.
Q4 2026 · the quarter after
Sales
PricedIn$696M$500M – $920M
$500M$620M$696M$790M$920M
diluted EPS
PricedIn−$1.99−$2.42 – −$1.28
−$2.42−$2.20−$1.99−$1.50−$1.28
Middlethe forecast50% range1 in 4 chance the result comes in below this bar, 1 in 4 above it. Half the time it lands inside.80% range1 in 10 chance below this line, 1 in 10 above it. These are the low and high printed by each number.The roomThe lowest 1-in-10 low and the highest 1-in-10 high among the five analysts, as each handed them in before the round, with who holds each.
The analysts agree the quarter is smaller than the third, with sales between sales of $670M and sales of $737M. They differ on year-end costs: Analyst A books sizeable inventory write-downs and the deepest loss, while Analyst B carries much lower product cost and the smallest loss.
The analysts expect fourth-quarter 2026 sales of about $696M, the tail of the fall season after a third-quarter peak.
Sales$696M+3% on Q4 2025 ($678M)50% range$620M – $790M80% range$500M – $920MThe room$450M – $980M C low · E high
Diluted EPS−$1.99−6% on Q4 2025 (−$2.11)50% range−$2.20 – −$1.5080% range−$2.42 – −$1.28The room−$2.90 – −$0.55 E low · E high
Investment and cash generation
Base case
Capital spending$66.0M
Free cash flow$84.0M
Free cash flow: operating cash flow less capital spending.
Cash capital spending of $66.0M keeps building the Norwood fill-and-finish line and Marlborough cancer-therapy equipment, which serve 2027 and later, not this quarter. On the basis used here, operating cash flow less capital spending, PricedIn free cash flow turns to $84.0M because Analyst A collects $680M of fall receivables; Analyst D, collecting less, has free cash flow of −$115M.4 of 5
- Analyst AStrong fourth-quarter cash collections of third-quarter and early fourth-quarter fall vaccine receivables, consistent with Moderna's historical Q4 positive operating cash flow pattern.
- Analyst BQ4 collects the Q3 receivables build, as in 2025 when Q4 operating cash flow was positive $930 million.
- Analyst DThird-quarter receivables collected, as in the 2025 fourth quarter.
- Analyst EForecast collection of autumn shipments; not all seasonal balances are assumed collected by year end.
The fourth quarter is the back half of the vaccine season: in-season American reorders, the rest of the international deliveries, and end-of-season returns. PricedIn fourth-quarter sales of $696M are a sales change of +2.7% from the same quarter a year earlier and a sales change of −18% from the third quarter the analysts expect.
The company gives no fourth-quarter number. The analysts derive it from the July plan, which put a little under half of second-half revenue in the fourth quarter, and from the growth target for the whole year.
Earnings look weaker than sales. The PricedIn quarter carries cost of sales of $412M, including year-end write-downs of unused doses, which pushes GAAP earnings per share to −$1.99. Cash runs the other way: collecting third-quarter receivables turns operating cash flow positive at $150M.
The analysts agree on sales, from sales of $670M to sales of $737M, but not on write-downs and costs, which spread earnings per share from −$1.99 to earnings per share of −$1.58.
PricedIn earnings per share of −$1.99 reflect a net loss of −$800M, softened by interest income of $76.0M on cash that now includes September's note proceeds; the notes' shares stay out of the count while losses continue.
What it rests on
- Second-half weighting
- Most of 2026 revenue expected in the second half
we expect 2026 revenue to be weighted to the second half of the year, with approximately 15% of our revenue in the first half and approximately 85% in the second half.
Fourth-quarter 2025 earnings call - Year-end cash
- Year-end 2026 cash and investments guided to a range, reflecting lower cash costs
Cash and investments are now projected to be between $4.7 billion and $5.2 billion at the end of 2026 which reflect the improvement in our cash cost guidance.
Second-quarter 2026 earnings call - Last fourth quarter's range
- For 2025, American fourth-quarter sales were guided to a wide range
For the U.S. market, we expect fourth quarter sales of $100 million to $400 million.
Third-quarter 2025 earnings call - Convertible notes
- Zero-coupon convertible notes due 2032 sold on 1 September 2026
completed its previously announced private offering (the “Offering”) of $3,000,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 0.00% Convertible Senior Notes due 2032
September 2026 filing on the notes
Scenarios Explained: Base, Low, and High
Basethe middle forecast
Q4-2026
Sales$696M
Diluted EPS−$1.99
Capital spending$66.0M
Free cash flow$84.0M
FCF walk and spending detail
Forecast dollars. Free cash flow is operating cash flow less capital spending.
| Net loss | −$800M |
|---|
| Stock-based compensation, depreciation and amortization, and non-cash inventory write-downs | $270M |
|---|
| Fourth-quarter accounts receivable collections and working capital release | $680M |
|---|
| Operating cash flow | $150M |
|---|
| Less capital spending | −$66.0M |
|---|
| Free cash flow | $84.0M |
|---|
- Net loss
- Forecast Q4 2026 base GAAP net loss on 696 million dollars of revenue.
- Stock-based compensation, depreciation and amortization, and non-cash inventory write-downs
- Forecast Q4 2026 non-cash stock-based compensation (~115 million dollars), depreciation and amortization (~65 million dollars), and seasonal non-cash inventory write-downs (~90 million dollars).
- Fourth-quarter accounts receivable collections and working capital release
- Strong fourth-quarter cash collections of third-quarter and early fourth-quarter fall vaccine receivables, consistent with Moderna's historical Q4 positive operating cash flow pattern.
Capital spending
We model Q4 2026 base capital spending of 66 million dollars to bring full-year 2026 capital expenditures to 230 million dollars, allocating 26 million dollars to building improvements, 25 million dollars to manufacturing and laboratory equipment, and 9 million dollars to computer equipment and software, with 6 million dollars unallocated for leasehold improvements and general construction timing.
| Building and building improvements | $26.0M |
|---|
| Manufacturing and laboratory equipment | $25.0M |
|---|
| Computer equipment and software | $9.00M |
|---|
| Unallocated capital spending | $6.00M |
|---|
| Total capital spending | $66.0M |
|---|
Building and building improvements Forecast Q4 2026 spending on building and facility improvements.
Building and building improvements 1,216 1,183
Manufacturing and laboratory equipment Forecast Q4 2026 spending on manufacturing and laboratory equipment.
Manufacturing and laboratory equipment 550 542
Computer equipment and software Forecast Q4 2026 spending on computer equipment and software.
Computer equipment and software 205 196
Capital Expenditures: Capital expenditures for 2026 are expected to be $0.2 to $0.3 billion.
Three ways the base case happens
These levers explain the outcome together.
- The fourth quarter takes a little under half of second-half sales. The company guided a little over half of second-half revenue into the third quarter, leaving the rest here. With the year near target, the fourth quarter is what remains after the third. A heavier third quarter leaves a lighter fourth, so the two quarters' sales and losses should be read together.
WatchAny change to the second-half split in the 6 November 2026 report.
Analyst reasoning
- Analyst Amodel second-half revenue split 55 percent in the third quarter (850 million dollars) and 45 percent in the fourth quarter (696 million dollars)
- Analyst CThe latest quarterly phasing is the direct basis for $900 million in the third quarter and $737 million in the fourth
- Analyst DSecond-half revenue about $1.51 billion split 55/45 (third quarter $840 million, fourth $670 million)
- Year-end write-downs keep product cost high. Unsold seasonal doses expire, so fourth quarters carry inventory charges; last year's fourth quarter had an operating loss larger than its sales. Write-downs raise cost of sales without adding sales, so the loss per share is wider than in the third quarter. They are non-cash, so they do not cut the quarter's operating cash flow.
WatchInventory write-down amounts in the fourth-quarter report.
Analyst reasoning
- Analyst AForecast Q4 2026 non-cash stock-based compensation (~115 million dollars), depreciation and amortization (~65 million dollars), and seasonal non-cash inventory write-downs (~90 million dollars).
- Analyst CLast year's third quarter shows the seasonal margin opportunity, but I do not carry its 21% ratio forward mechanically because product mix, write-downs and idle capacity vary.
- Analyst ELower vaccination demand and more returns
- Fall receivables are collected before year end. Shipments booked in the third quarter are paid for in the fourth, as in 2025. Collections turn operating cash flow positive despite the loss, and free cash flow positive in the PricedIn forecast. Interest on the September note proceeds also trims the loss.
WatchYear-end cash and investments against the company's guided range.
Analyst reasoning
- Analyst BQ4 collects the Q3 receivables build, as in 2025 when Q4 operating cash flow was positive $930 million.
- Analyst CSeasonal receivable collection and disciplined capital spending
- Analyst DI raise interest income (about $70 million in the third quarter, $82 million in the fourth, about $270 million in 2027)
Sales near $696M need in-season American reorders and the remaining international deliveries to arrive as planned, with no large spill into 2027. Cost of sales near $412M, including seasonal write-downs, gives earnings per share of −$1.99, while collections of third-quarter receivables lift operating cash flow to $150M.
Highabout 1 chance in 10 of better
Q4-2026
Sales$920M+32% vs base
Diluted EPS−$1.28−36% vs base
Capital spending$80.0M
Free cash flow$325M
FCF walk and spending detail
Forecast dollars. Free cash flow is operating cash flow less capital spending.
| net loss (high case) | −$530M |
|---|
| stock-based compensation, depreciation and investment amortization | $205M |
|---|
| accounts receivable collection | $750M |
|---|
| other working capital | −$20.0M |
|---|
| Operating cash flow | $405M |
|---|
| Less capital spending | −$80.0M |
|---|
| Free cash flow | $325M |
|---|
- net loss (high case)
- High-case fourth quarter, loss per share about -$1.32.
- stock-based compensation, depreciation and investment amortization
- Run-rate.
- accounts receivable collection
- Larger third-quarter receivables collected.
- other working capital
- Timing.
Capital spending
Remainder not split by the company.
| fill/finish capacity | $25.0M |
|---|
| Unallocated capital spending | $55.0M |
|---|
| Total capital spending | $80.0M |
|---|
fill/finish capacity Assumed Norwood share.
This guidance includes our previously announced investment in building our own fill/finish capacity in the United States at our existing site in Norwood, Massachusetts.
Cash and investments are now projected to be between $4.7 billion and $5.2 billion at the end of 2026 which reflect the improvement in our cash cost guidance.
Three ways the high case happens
These levers explain the outcome together; each is not a separate one-in-ten event.
- American reorders stay strong through December. A season holding near last year's level keeps pharmacies reordering after the October peak. More late-season doses lift sales against fixed costs, narrowing the loss; larger third-quarter shipments also mean more receivables to collect this quarter.
WatchPharmacy vaccination counts staying near the prior year into December 2026.
Analyst reasoning
- Analyst Dflat U.S. vaccination versus 2025
- Analyst BUS vaccination rates roughly flat rather than down 20 percent
- Analyst CStronger vaccine volumes, pricing and retail share
- Write-downs shrink as more doses sell through. Higher sell-through leaves less stock to expire at season end. Lower charges cut cost of sales, so the loss narrows more than sales rise.
WatchSmaller inventory charges in the fourth-quarter report.
Analyst reasoning
- Analyst AForecast Q4 2026 non-cash charges with lower inventory write-downs due to higher seasonal sell-through.
- Analyst EHigh manufacturing utilization and expense discipline
- Larger collections lift cash. Bigger fall shipments create a larger receivables balance to collect before year end. Operating cash flow and free cash flow rise well above the PricedIn forecast without changing earnings. Analyst C's high case collects receivables of $750M.
WatchYear-end cash at the top of the guided range.
Analyst reasoning
- Analyst CGreater operating leverage and cash collections
- Analyst AHigher cash collections from larger Q3 and Q4 vaccine deliveries.
- Analyst DLarger third-quarter receivables collected.
Sales near $920M and earnings per share near −$1.28 need American reorders to hold up through December, international partners to take extra doses, and smaller write-downs. Analyst E goes furthest, with sales of $980M and earnings per share of −$0.55, because it pairs strong demand and mix with high plant use and tight costs, and collects enough for free cash flow of $724M.
In 2025 the fourth quarter brought strong collections and positive cash flow; a stronger season enlarges both the sales and the cash collected.
The five highs run from $800M (Analyst B) to $980M (Analyst E).
First sign6 November 2026: third-quarter sales well above plan with a raised year outlook would point to a stronger fourth quarter.
Lowabout 1 chance in 10 of worse
Q4-2026
Sales$500M−28% vs base
Diluted EPS−$2.42+22% vs base
Capital spending$56.0M
Free cash flow−$76.0M
FCF walk and spending detail
Forecast dollars. Free cash flow is operating cash flow less capital spending.
| Net loss | −$965M |
|---|
| Stock-based compensation, depreciation and amortization, and non-cash inventory write-downs | $295M |
|---|
| Fourth-quarter accounts receivable collections and working capital release | $650M |
|---|
| Operating cash flow | −$20.0M |
|---|
| Less capital spending | −$56.0M |
|---|
| Free cash flow | −$76.0M |
|---|
- Net loss
- Forecast Q4 2026 low-case GAAP net loss on 546 million dollars of revenue.
- Stock-based compensation, depreciation and amortization, and non-cash inventory write-downs
- Forecast Q4 2026 non-cash charges including elevated inventory write-downs from lower vaccine demand.
- Fourth-quarter accounts receivable collections and working capital release
- Fourth-quarter collection of third-quarter receivables, smaller than the base case due to lower Q3 shipments.
Capital spending
In the low case, Q4 2026 capital spending is paced at 56 million dollars (bringing full-year 2026 capex to 210 million dollars), with 51 million dollars allocated across the three core property and equipment categories and 5 million dollars unallocated.
| Building and building improvements | $22.0M |
|---|
| Manufacturing and laboratory equipment | $21.0M |
|---|
| Computer equipment and software | $8.00M |
|---|
| Unallocated capital spending | $5.00M |
|---|
| Total capital spending | $56.0M |
|---|
Building and building improvements Low-case Q4 2026 building and facility improvement spending.
Building and building improvements 1,216 1,183
Manufacturing and laboratory equipment Low-case Q4 2026 manufacturing and laboratory equipment spending.
Manufacturing and laboratory equipment 550 542
Computer equipment and software Low-case Q4 2026 computer equipment and software spending.
Computer equipment and software 205 196
Capital Expenditures: Capital expenditures for 2026 are expected to be $0.2 to $0.3 billion.
Three ways the low case happens
These levers explain the outcome together; each is not a separate one-in-ten event.
- In-season American reorders fall away early. Fourth-quarter American sales depend on pharmacy reorders, which shrink fast when uptake disappoints. Fewer reorders cut sales with no matching cost cut, widening the loss; weaker third-quarter shipments also leave less to collect, so operating cash flow can turn negative.
WatchPharmacy vaccination counts in November and December 2026.
Analyst reasoning
- Analyst BUS COVID retail vaccination rates fall harder than the 20 percent provisioned
- Analyst CWeaker U.S. vaccine demand and lower mNEXSPIKE share
- Analyst DU.S. COVID vaccination rates and next-generation COVID share
- Bigger write-downs and returns at season end. Unused doses are returned or expire, and the charges land in the year's last quarter. Higher write-downs push cost of sales up and the loss per share further down; Analyst A's low case carries non-cash charges, write-downs included, of $295M.
WatchReturn provisions or write-downs flagged in the fourth-quarter report.
Analyst reasoning
- Analyst AForecast Q4 2026 non-cash charges including elevated inventory write-downs from lower vaccine demand.
- Analyst ELower vaccination demand and more returns
- Slower collections and smaller international deliveries. Fourth-quarter cash depends on collecting third-quarter receivables, and international timing can slip into 2027. Less to collect and slower payment keep operating cash flow near or below zero; Analyst D's low case has free cash flow of −$490M.
WatchYear-end cash below the guided range in the fourth-quarter report.
Analyst reasoning
- Analyst EForecast seasonal collections, allowing slower receipts and lower shipments than base.
- Analyst AFourth-quarter collection of third-quarter receivables, smaller than the base case due to lower Q3 shipments.
- Analyst CDelayed international deliveries and slower European market entry
Sales near $500M and earnings per share near −$2.42 would need a weak American season to dry up early, international partners to take fewer doses, and large write-downs of unsold stock. Analyst E goes furthest on earnings per share, at −$2.90, because its low case pairs weak sales with more returns and higher clinical and legal spending; Analysts C and D cut sales furthest, to $450M.
Last year's fourth quarter showed the pattern: an operating loss larger than sales as the season ended, after management had guided American fourth-quarter sales to a wide range.
The five lows run from $450M (Analyst C) to $620M (Analyst B).
First sign6 November 2026: a third-quarter release that trims the year's growth target or flags weak American uptake.
The odds the analysts give
Two questions each analyst answers with a probability.
Sales: the company's own normal, its year-over-year growth over the last eight quarters, −65.6% to +260.2%.
Growth above +260.2% on Q4 2025, the company's highest in eight quarters (Q1 2026)
0.5%the five: 0.1% to 0.5%
On Q4 2025's $678M that is fourth-quarter sales above $2.44B.
Growth below −65.6%, the company's lowest in eight quarters (Q4 2024)
1.5%the five: 0.5% to 2.5%
On Q4 2025's $678M that is fourth-quarter sales below $233M.
Together: 2% odds of a quarter outside the company's normal.
Surfaced outlier views
For Q4-2026 the five analysts sit within 5.9% of the PricedIn number on sales and within 20.6% on diluted EPS. The furthest, and why:
Analyst C · Q4-2026: sales $737M, the highest of the five (PricedIn $696M)
WhyAnalyst C expects net product sales of $692M, phasing its stronger full year the way the company does. It keeps cost of sales at $402M, close to PricedIn cost of sales of $412M, so its earnings per share of −$1.89 are only a little better than the PricedIn forecast.
The latest quarterly phasing is the direct basis for $900 million in the third quarter and $737 million in the fourth, alongside full-year growth near the high single digits.
Analyst B · Q4-2026: diluted EPS −$1.58, the highest of the five (PricedIn −$1.99)
WhyAnalyst B carries cost of sales of only $282M, against PricedIn cost of sales of $412M, with no large year-end write-down, and selling costs of $291M. That holds its net loss to −$635M, against the PricedIn net loss of −$800M.
Q4 plan: about $715 million of seasonal revenue against about $1.38 billion of operating expenses.
Analyst D · Q4-2026: sales $670M and diluted EPS −$1.88, near the PricedIn numbers of $696M and −$1.99, by a different route
WhyAnalyst D lands near the PricedIn numbers with lower sales of $670M, offset by cost of sales of $360M and the highest interest income, $82.0M, from investing the September note proceeds.
$3.0 billion of zero-coupon notes added about $2.6 billion of net cash in September.
The cases
The analyst with the highest 1-in-10 high argues the bull case; the one with the lowest 1-in-10 low argues the bear case. Each claim stands on a line the harness replays. The other analysts adopt a line or deny in a sentence, before their finals.
The bull case · Analyst E · Q4-2026: sales $980M, diluted EPS −$0.55, as the 1-in-10 high
The caseMy fourth-quarter bull case—$980 million of sales and a diluted loss of $0.55 per share—rests on a smaller-than-budgeted U.S. vaccination decline plus contracted international deliveries, rather than needing an immediate oncology launch. The chief financial officer said international business was already largely contracted, described additional second-half partnership supply as material, and explicitly identified a milder U.S. decline as upside. Paired with my $1.11 billion third-quarter high case, $980 million puts about 47% of second-half sales in the fourth quarter, close to the 45% implied by management's phasing: the main bet is a stronger season, not a radical shipment shift. For earnings, I assume additional sales leverage existing capacity while the disclosed manufacturing and research efficiencies contain costs; the $0.55 loss still allows substantial seasonal commercial spending rather than requiring break-even.
And that's really where the biggest variable is. So across the globe, we've basically contracted. We have to execute.
upside swing is if it is not as big a decline as we projected, then we should have upside in the US.
This year, we will supply some of the strategic partnerships that we have, and it's quite material.
will represent approximately 55% of our second half revenue. Now let me turn to our second quarter financial performance on Slide 10. As
mCombriax. We are lowering our cost of sales projection by $0.1 billion to $1.7 billion, reflecting additional manufacturing efficiency gains.
lowering our R&D expense estimate by $0.1 billion to $2.9 billion due to operational efficiencies and SG&A expenses are still expected to
Similar to 2025, our commercial spend will be more heavily weighted to the second half of the year due to the seasonality of our business.
Verdicts: adopted by 0, denied by 4
The bear case · Analyst C · Q4-2026: sales $450M, diluted EPS −$2.76, as the 1-in-10 low
The caseBecause the third quarter is expected to carry most second-half revenue, weak fall sell-through would leave the fourth quarter dependent on scarce reorders and international shipments that can slip into the following year. A worse-than-planned U.S. vaccination decline could therefore cut fourth-quarter sales to $450 million, while second-half-weighted commercial spending, substantial research expense and seasonal inventory or idle-capacity charges drive diluted EPS to negative $2.76.
We continue to expect a roughly 50-50 split between US and international revenue for the full year, and we expect third quarter revenue will represent approximately 55% of our second half revenue.
There are some countries that have minor vaccination rate. Some shipments could happen into the year or some could go into the first quarter of the following year, but I would call that relatively small.
Our 2026 revenue guidance factors in potential future declines in COVID vaccination rates and continues to assume no revenue from mFlusiva and mCombriax.
Similar to 2025, our commercial spend will be more heavily weighted to the second half of the year due to the seasonality of our business.
Research and development expenses for 2026 are now anticipated to be approximately $2.9 billion, lowered from approximately $3.0 billion.
Verdicts: adopted by 0, denied by 4
Watch
The third-quarter report on 6 November 2026 shows how much of the season landed early; any reset of the year's target moves this quarter most. Then watch December pharmacy data and the fourth-quarter report for write-downs and year-end cash.