The quarter against our forecast
Q3 2026 line by line, as the income statement shows it
| Line | Outlook | Our forecast | Reported | Against our forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue | — | $850M | $1.31B | +54.5%beat |
| Net product sales | — | — | $1.27B | not in our forecast |
| Other revenue | — | — | $40.0M | not in our forecast |
| Sales growth, year on year | — | −16.3% | 29.2% | +45.6 ptbeat |
| Net product sales | — | $805M | — | with the 10-Q |
| Other revenue | — | $45.0M | — | with the 10-Q |
| Total revenue | — | $850M | — | with the 10-Q |
| Cost of sales | — | $240M | $318M | +32.5%miss |
| Research and development | — | $790M | $583M | −26.2%beat |
| Selling, general and administrative | — | $295M | $282M | −4.4%beat |
| Total operating expenses | — | $1.32B | $1.18B | −10.7%beat |
| Loss from operations | — | −$475M | $130M | —beat |
| Operating margin | — | −55.9% | 9.9% | +65.8 ptbeat |
| Interest income | — | $65.0M | $62.0M | −4.6%miss |
| Other (expense) income, net | — | −$18.0M | −$21.0M | —miss |
| Loss before income taxes | — | −$428M | $171M | —beat |
| Provision for income taxes | — | $12.0M | $9.0M | −25.0%beat |
| Tax rate | — | −2.8% | 5.3% | +8.1 ptmiss |
| Net loss | — | −$440M | $162M | —beat |
| Basic and diluted | — | 0.40B | 0.43B | +0.03Bmiss |
| Diluted EPS | — | −$1.10 | $0.38 | +148¢beat |
Our forecast was frozen before the release: the middle forecast of 5 analysts as of 2026-11-05 17:46:20 ET. Each reported number is quoted from the release; the 10-Q's tagged facts confirm the statement's lines when it is filed. Read before our lock: the SEC lists the release in its index that night, and the next check confirms its bytes. A cost above our forecast is a miss.
Why the quarter differed from our forecast
Net loss+$602M
What we assumedOur forecast expected international deliveries to offset weaker U.S. vaccination volumes, leaving a third-quarter net loss of −$440M.as international deliveries in the United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia offset a moderate decline in United States COVID vaccination volumes.
Analyst A
What the company printedModerna reported net income of $162M; international COVID vaccine sales, supported by strategic government deliveries, drove revenue growth.Revenue: Total revenue for the third quarter of 2026 increased 29% to $1.3 billion, compared to $1.0 billion in the same period in 2025, primarily driven by higher COVID vaccine sales in international markets, supported by deliveries under long-term strategic government partnerships. Revenue was $780 million in the U.S. and $533 million in international markets.
Known before our cutoff?Yes: The July 31 earnings call flagged material strategic-partnership supply: the growth driver was available, although its eventual quarterly size was not.some of the strategic partnerships volume. This year, we will supply some of the strategic partnerships that we have, and it's quite material.
Loss from operations+$605M
What we assumedOur forecast used management's research-spending guidance, forecasting third-quarter research and development expense of $790M.We used management's updated 2026 financial framework from the second-quarter call to model second-half revenue split 55 percent in the third quarter (850 million dollars) and 45 percent in the fourth quarter (696 million dollars) for full-year sales of 2.08 billion dollars, full-year cost of sales of 1.70 billion dollars, research and development of 2.90 billion dollars, selling, general and administrative expenses of 1.00 billion dollars, and the 950 million dollar third-quarter litigation settlement cash payment.
Analyst A
What the company printedModerna attributed lower research spending to completed and winding-down late-stage infectious-disease studies and continued organizational cost efficiencies.Research and Development Expenses: Research and development expenses for the third quarter of 2026 were $583 million, a 27% decrease compared to the same period in 2025, primarily driven by lower clinical development costs following the completion and wind-down of certain late-stage studies in the Company's infectious disease portfolio, as well as continued cost efficiencies across the organization.
Known before our cutoff?Yes: The second-quarter release already identified late-stage study wind-downs as a research-cost saving; the forecasts underestimated the subsequent reduction.Research and Development Expenses: Research and development expenses for the second quarter of 2026 were $651 million, a 7% decrease compared to the same period in 2025. The decrease was primarily driven by lower clinical development costs following the wind-down of several late-stage programs.
Total revenue+54.5%
What we assumedOur forecast followed management's third-quarter share of second-half revenue, forecasting third-quarter revenue of $850M.We used management's updated 2026 financial framework from the second-quarter call to model second-half revenue split 55 percent in the third quarter (850 million dollars) and 45 percent in the fourth quarter (696 million dollars) for full-year sales of 2.08 billion dollars, full-year cost of sales of 1.70 billion dollars, research and development of 2.90 billion dollars, selling, general and administrative expenses of 1.00 billion dollars, and the 950 million dollar third-quarter litigation settlement cash payment.
Analyst A
What the company printedThird-quarter revenue reached $1.3B, primarily driven by higher international COVID vaccine sales supported by long-term strategic government partnerships.Revenue: Total revenue for the third quarter of 2026 increased 29% to $1.3 billion, compared to $1.0 billion in the same period in 2025, primarily driven by higher COVID vaccine sales in international markets, supported by deliveries under long-term strategic government partnerships. Revenue was $780 million in the U.S. and $533 million in international markets.
Known before our cutoff?No: Searched pre-cutoff filings and calls for realized third-quarter revenue and international sales totals; found no disclosure of the eventual amounts.
The company's new outlook
Revenue: The Company now expects total revenue growth of 15% to 25% in 2026, exceeding its previous outlook of up to 10% growth. Moderna continues to expect approximately half of its 2026 revenue to come from the United States and half from international markets.
Cost of Sales: Cost of sales for 2026 is expected to be approximately $1.7 billion, including the previously announced $0.9 billion non-recurring litigation settlement charge.
Cost of Sales: Cost of sales for 2026 is expected to be approximately $1.7 billion, including the previously announced $0.9 billion non-recurring litigation settlement charge.
Research and Development Expenses: Research and development expenses for 2026 are expected to be approximately $2.7 billion, reduced from the Company's previous expectation of approximately $2.9 billion.
Selling, General and Administrative Expenses: Selling, general and administrative expenses for 2026 are expected to be approximately $1.0 billion, unchanged from previous forecast.
Capital Expenditures: Capital expenditures for 2026 are expected to be approximately $0.2 billion, improved from the previous expectation of $0.2 billion to $0.3 billion.
Cash and Investments: The Company now expects year-end 2026 cash and investments of approximately $8.1 billion to $8.3 billion, increased from its previous outlook of $4.7 billion to $5.2 billion. The increase reflects improved operational execution and proceeds from the Company’s convertible notes financing. This outlook excludes additional drawdowns from the approximately $0.9 billion remaining available under the Company's credit facility.
Improves 2026 GAAP operating expense outlook by approximately $0.2 billion from previous estimate
Each item as the release prints it. Our forecast stands beside an item only when the item is one of our two numbers, for our quarter or year, in our unit.
The company's reasons, from the release
- Revenue growth “Revenue: Total revenue for the third quarter of 2026 increased 29% to $1.3 billion, compared to $1.0 billion in the same period in 2025, primarily driven by higher COVID vaccine sales in international markets, supported by deliveries under long-term strategic government partnerships. Revenue was $780 million in the U.S. and $533 million in international markets.”
- Higher cost of sales “Cost of Sales: Cost of sales for the third quarter of 2026 was $318 million, including $65 million of third-party royalties. Cost of sales increased by 54% compared to the same period in 2025, primarily driven by higher product sales volume and other manufacturing-related costs.”
- Lower research and development expenses “Research and Development Expenses: Research and development expenses for the third quarter of 2026 were $583 million, a 27% decrease compared to the same period in 2025, primarily driven by lower clinical development costs following the completion and wind-down of certain late-stage studies in the Company's infectious disease portfolio, as well as continued cost efficiencies across the organization.”
- Income taxes “Income Taxes: Income tax provisions for both periods were not material, as the Company continues to maintain a global valuation allowance against most of its deferred tax assets.”
- Cash position increase “Cash Position: Cash, cash equivalents and investments as of September 30, 2026, were $8.0 billion, compared to $6.9 billion as of June 30, 2026. The increase primarily reflected $2.6 billion in net proceeds from the issuance of convertible notes and related capped call transactions, partially offset by the $950 million payment related to the litigation settlement announced in the first quarter of 2026, and cash used in operations, including the seasonal working capital impact from third-quarter product sales, the majority of which remained uncollected at quarter-end.”