Q3 FY27 · the quarter NVDA reports
Sales
PricedIn$112B$107B – $117B
$107B$112B$117B
adjusted EPS
PricedIn$2.57$2.38 – $2.74
$2.38$2.57$2.74
Middlethe forecast80% range1 in 10 chance below this bar, 1 in 10 above it. These are the low and high printed by each number.
All five put sales above the outlook, from $110B (GLM) to $114B (Opus); they differ only on how large the beat will be.
Sales of about $112B in the quarter to October, a beat on the company's own outlook as Vera Rubin starts shipping.
Sales$112B$107B – $117B · +97% on Q3 FY26 ($57B)
Adjusted EPS$2.57$2.38 – $2.74 · +98% on Q3 FY26 ($1.30)
Investment and cash generation
Base case
Capital spending$3.30B
Free cash flow$42.5B
Free cash flow: operating cash flow less capital spending.
Sales reached $96.2B in the quarter to July, up 18% on the quarter, at a 75% gross margin and $2.22 of adjusted earnings per share. For the quarter to October the company guided sales of $108.0B, give or take 2%, with gross margin of 74% as memory prices climb. It expects its new Vera Rubin systems to be about a fifth of data center sales.
All five models put sales above the outlook, because the company has beaten its own guide by about 2.5% to 6% in each recent quarter. Opus and MiMo assume a full-sized beat; Sol assumes a smaller one, saying the new system ramp and memory bottlenecks raise execution risk. GLM sits closest to the guide.
On margins the five agree: about 74% gross and 66% operating, taken almost straight from the company's outlook and cost guidance.
Adjusted earnings per share of about $2.57 comes from roughly $83.0B of gross profit at a 74% margin, about $9.0B of operating costs and a 16% tax rate. Stock pay now counts as a cost in the adjusted figure.
Outlook against result
Q1 FY26+2.5%$43B → $44B
Q2 FY26+3.9%$45B → $47B
Q3 FY26+5.6%$54B → $57B
Q4 FY26+4.8%$65B → $68B
Q1 FY27+4.6%$78B → $82B
Q2 FY27+5.7%$91B → $96B
Q3 FY27+3.8%$108B → $112B
Each outlook is the one the company gave before the quarter. The last row is the models' forecast.
The quarter forecast, line by line
The lines as the company's statement shows them. The forecast columns are the average of the models, line by line. Sales growth is the change on the same quarter a year earlier. Earnings per share is the headline's: the company's own for the reported quarter, and for a forecast quarter worked out from the averaged lines with the company's adjustments.
What it rests on
- Quarter outlook
- $108.0B in sales, plus or minus 2%, with no China data center sales assumed
•Revenue is expected to be $108.0 billion, plus or minus 2%. We are not assuming any Data Center compute revenue from China in our outlook.
Second-quarter commentary, August 2026 - Margin outlook
- Gross margin of 74.0%, plus or minus half a point
•GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins are expected to be 74.0%, plus or minus 50 basis points.
Second-quarter commentary, August 2026 - Last quarter's sales
- $96.2B, up 106% on a year earlier and 18% on the quarter
Revenue for the second quarter was a record $96.2 billion, up 106% from a year ago and up 18% sequentially.
Second-quarter commentary, August 2026 - Vera Rubin share
- About 20% of data center sales this quarter; cloud giants reaccelerate later
We expect sequential growth to be driven primarily by AC, I, and E with data center, while growth in hyperseal is expected to reaccelerate in Q4 and into fiscal year 28, as supply of Vera Rubin grows over time. We see Vera Rubin accounting for about 20% of data center revenue in Q3.
Earnings call, August 26, 2026 - Slower collections
- Days of sales outstanding rose to 60 from 45 on longer payment terms
Accounts receivable was $63.1 billion with 60 days sales outstanding (DSO), up from 45 days sequentially, due to extended payment terms on large, multi-quarter agreements with certain investment-grade customers.
Second-quarter commentary, August 2026
Low and high
Base $112B sales, $2.57 adjusted EPS: the story above.
$3.30BCapital spending
$42.5BFree cash flow
Cash walk not supplied by every model.
Lowabout 1 chance in 10 of worse
$107Bsales · −5% vs base
$2.38EPS · −7% vs base
The beat stops: sales land around $107B, 4.6% below the base and just under the outlook, because Vera Rubin racks or memory arrive late. Earnings per share would be near $2.38.
Opus notes the company has not missed its outlook midpoint in this period, so even the low sits close to the guide.
Sales only meet the outlook, with no usual beat5 of 5
- Opus 5.5Sales land near the bottom of the third-quarter outlook.
- GPT-6.1 SolThird-quarter sales below about $106 billion
- Grok 4.7A third-quarter sales print at or below the 108 billion dollar outlook
- GLM 5.3Third-quarter revenue at or below the low end of the $108 billion guide
- MiMo-V2.6-Prorevenue only at or just above the $108 billion guide rather than the usual beat
Vera Rubin racks or memory supply slip3 of 5
- Grok 4.7Vera Rubin yields and rack supply slip, so the hyperscale rebound expected next quarter is delayed
- GPT-6.1 SolDelays in chips, memory and ready-to-use data centers
- Opus 5.5memory and packaging supply
The five lows run from $104B (GPT-6.1 Sol) to $109B (Opus 5.5).
First signThe November 17 report: sales at or below $108.0B, or gross margin under 73.5%.
Highabout 1 chance in 10 of better
$117Bsales · +4% vs base
$2.74EPS · +7% vs base
Supply opens faster and the beat matches its recent best, taking sales to about $117B, 4.5% above the base, and earnings per share to about $2.74.
GLM counts beats of 4.6% to 5.7% on the outlook in each of the last three quarters.
Supply and yields improve faster than planned4 of 5
- Opus 5.5faster supply additions
- GPT-6.1 SolSupplier capacity and yields improve faster than planned
- GLM 5.3Supply arrives faster than guided (foundry yields, memory allocation)
- MiMo-V2.6-Prothe company finds more capacity through 2027
The beat continues at its recent size3 of 5
- GLM 5.3The guide-beat pattern continues: 4.6-5.7% beats in each of the last three quarters
- Opus 5.5The third quarter beats by 7% or more.
- MiMo-V2.6-Prothe third quarter prints $118 billion or better with margin holding
Vera Rubin becomes the fastest ramp in company history2 of 5
- Grok 4.7Vera Rubin is the fastest product ramp in the company's history
- MiMo-V2.6-ProVera Rubin — the fastest product ramp in the company's history — carries the fourth quarter and fiscal 2028
The five highs run from $114B (GLM 5.3) to $119B (MiMo-V2.6-Pro).
First signSales above about $117B on November 17, with gross margin above 74.5%.
Watch
November 17: sales against the $108.0B outlook and gross margin against 74%. Above $117B points higher; at or below $108.0B, or margin under 73.5%, points lower. Days of sales outstanding climbing past 60 would also be a warning.
Q4 FY27 · the quarter after
Sales
PricedIn$129B$118B – $141B
$118B$129B$141B
adjusted EPS
PricedIn$2.88$2.51 – $3.24
$2.51$2.88$3.24
Middlethe forecast80% range1 in 10 chance below this bar, 1 in 10 above it. These are the low and high printed by each number.
All five see 13% to 17% growth on the third quarter; Sol's range, $112B to $151B, is the widest and GLM's the narrowest.
Sales of about $129B as Vera Rubin supply reaches the largest cloud companies, even as memory costs push gross margin to its low.
Sales$129B$118B – $141B · +89% on Q4 FY26 ($68B)
Adjusted EPS$2.88$2.51 – $3.24 · +81% on Q4 FY26 ($1.59)
Investment and cash generation
Capital spending: not supplied by every model
Free cash flow: not supplied by every model
Free cash flow: operating cash flow less capital spending.
The company expects growth at the largest cloud companies to pick up again in the quarter to January as Vera Rubin supply grows. It also expects gross margin to bottom there, at 71% to 72%, because memory prices have risen more than it planned. The quarter runs 14 weeks, one more than usual.
All five models see a step of 13% to 17% on the third quarter, middles from $126B (GLM) to $131B (MiMo). Their numbers match what the year totals leave for the quarter.
Sol has the widest range, $112B to $151B, allowing both a stalled ramp and a fast one. GLM is the most cautious, holding its high at $134B.
Earnings per share of about $2.88: gross margin dips to about 72% as memory costs peak, operating costs rise to about $9.6B, and the tax rate holds near 16%.
What it rests on
- Margin low point
- Gross margin to bottom at 71% to 72%, then 72% to 73% next year
We expect margins to bottom in Q4 in the 71% to 72% range, before settling at 72% to 73% in fiscal year 28, as executed price increases take effect in Q1.
Earnings call, August 26, 2026 - Memory prices
- Price rises beyond expectations and heading higher into next year
we are experiencing extreme pricing conditions in memory. The magnitude of the price increase has exceeded our prior expectations and are headed even higher into next year.
Earnings call, August 26, 2026 - Vera Rubin orders
- Orders from every major cloud, AI cloud and system maker
Having already received purchase orders from every major hyperscaler, AI cloud, and system OEM, we expect Vera Rubin to mark the fastest product ramp in NVIDIA's history.
Earnings call, August 26, 2026 - Longer quarter
- The fourth quarter runs 14 weeks in a 53-week year
Fiscal year 2027 is a 53-week year, and fiscal year 2026 was a 52-week year, both ending on the last Sunday in January. The second quarters of fiscal years 2027 and 2026 were both 13-week quarters. The fourth quarter of fiscal year 2027 will be a 14-week quarter.
Quarterly report, July 2026
Low and high
Base $129B sales, $2.88 adjusted EPS: the story above.
Lowabout 1 chance in 10 of worse
$118Bsales · −9% vs base
$2.51EPS · −13% vs base
Vera Rubin supply builds slowly and memory pinches, so sales reach about $118B, 8.7% below the base, with gross margin below 71% and earnings per share near $2.51.
Even the low means about 5.1% growth on the third quarter; every quarter in the record has grown.
Vera Rubin supply builds slowly3 of 5
- Grok 4.7Vera Rubin yields and rack supply slip, so the hyperscale rebound expected next quarter is delayed
- Opus 5.5Supply of memory and advanced packaging falls short
- GPT-6.1 SolDelays in chips, memory and ready-to-use data centers
Memory costs push gross margin under 71%3 of 5
- GLM 5.3Fourth-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue lands near $118 billion with gross margin below 71%
- MiMo-V2.6-Propushes gross margin below 71% in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2027
- Opus 5.5Gross margin sinks toward 70% as memory costs outrun price increases.
AI labs and smaller clouds struggle to finance purchases3 of 5
- Opus 5.5customer financing for artificial intelligence labs and smaller cloud providers
- GPT-6.1 SolCustomer financing fails to convert demand into purchases
- MiMo-V2.6-ProAI labs and neoclouds hit financing walls and pull back orders after the 2026 commitments
The five lows run from $112B (GPT-6.1 Sol) to $123B (MiMo-V2.6-Pro).
First signA fourth-quarter outlook on November 17 implying little growth on the third quarter, with days of sales outstanding climbing further.
Highabout 1 chance in 10 of better
$141Bsales · +10% vs base
$3.24EPS · +13% vs base
Supply opens and cloud orders reaccelerate hard, taking sales to about $141B, 9.6% above the base, and earnings per share to about $3.24.
Growth of 26% on the quarter before would top the record's fastest step, 22% in the third quarter of fiscal 2026.
Supply additions arrive faster than planned3 of 5
- Opus 5.5faster supply additions
- GPT-6.1 SolSupply catches up with exceptionally strong demand
- MiMo-V2.6-Prothe company finds more capacity through 2027
Cloud giants' orders reaccelerate as Vera Rubin ramps2 of 5
- Grok 4.7hyperscale orders reaccelerate hard
- GLM 5.3Hyperscale growth reaccelerates from the fourth quarter as Rubin supply grows
Price increases more than cover memory costs2 of 5
- Grok 4.7price increases more than cover memory
- GPT-6.1 SolPrice increases and operating scale protect earnings
The five highs run from $134B (GLM 5.3) to $151B (GPT-6.1 Sol).
First signA fourth-quarter outlook above about $125B on November 17, or a gross margin outlook above 72%.
Watch
November 17: the fourth-quarter sales and margin outlook. A guide above about $136B or margin above 72% points higher; a guide below $125B, margin under 71% or worse memory price comments point lower.