Wednesday 21 October, 16:41 ET · released
Tesla reported. Sales $28.0B vs our $28.8B, miss −2.6%. Adjusted EPS $0.48 vs our $0.44, beat +4¢. After the call we forecast again.
The quarter against our forecast
Q3 2026 sales$28.0Bour forecast $28.8B · −2.6%
adjusted EPS$0.48our forecast $0.44 · +4¢
Q3 2026 line by line, as the income statement shows it
| Line | Outlook | Our forecast | Reported | Against our forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenues | — | $28.8B | $28.0B | −2.6%miss |
| Automotive Revenues | — | — | $20.6B | not in our forecast |
| Automotive sales | — | — | $20.1B | not in our forecast |
| Automotive regulatory credits | — | — | $113M | not in our forecast |
| Automotive leasing | — | — | $353M | not in our forecast |
| Energy generation and storage | — | — | $2.88B | not in our forecast |
| Services and other | — | — | $4.61B | not in our forecast |
| Net income attributable to common stockholders | — | $651M | $787M | +20.9%beat |
| Diluted (in shares) | — | 3.55B | 3.54B | −0.01Bbeat |
| Adjusted EPS | — | $0.44 | $0.48 | +4¢beat |
Our forecast was frozen before the release: the average of 6 models as of 2026-10-21 04:07:30 ET. Each reported number is quoted from the release; the 10-Q's tagged facts confirm the statement's lines when it is filed. Read before our lock: the SEC lists the release in its index that night, and the next check confirms its bytes. A cost above our forecast is a miss.
The company's new outlook
Q4 2026
Our Q4 2026 forecast, made 2026-10-21 before this releasesales $29.7B · adjusted EPS $0.49
FY2026
SI training computeplan · end of 2026 · MW400
We plan to reach 400 MW of SI training compute by the end of the year
Each item as the release prints it. Our forecast stands beside an item only when the item is one of our two numbers, for our quarter or year, in our unit.
The company's reasons, from the release
- Revenue YoY: lower Energy Generation and Storage “decrease in Energy Generation and Storage, partially due to tariff-related customer refunds”
- Revenue YoY: lower vehicle ASP “lower vehicle average selling price (ASP) (excl. FX impact1), inclusive of mix impact”
- Revenue YoY: lower regulatory credits “lower regulatory credit revenue - decrease in vehicle deliveries”
- Revenue YoY: lower deliveries, growth in services, FX “decrease in vehicle deliveries + growth in Services and Other + positive FX impact of $0.3B1”
- Revenue YoY: higher FSD-driven ancillary sales “higher automotive ancillary sales, primarily driven by an increase in FSD subscriptions Profitability”
- Operating income YoY: higher operating expenses “increase in operating expenses driven by SI and other R&D projects, SBC (including 2025 CEO Performance Award) and SG&A”
- Operating income YoY: lower energy gross profit, higher services gross profit “lower Energy Generation and Storage gross profit + growth in Services and Other gross profit”
- Operating income YoY: vehicle mix, lower restructuring “improved vehicle region and product mix, partially offset by lower vehicle average selling price (ASP) (excl. FX impact1) + lower restructuring and other expenses”
- Operating income YoY: FX “positive FX impact of $0.1B1”
- Cash increase from free cash flow “The sequential increase of $1.9B was primarily a result of positive free cash flow of $1.5B.”
- Auto volumes limited by battery supply “While battery availability continued to be the limiting factor in increasing auto volumes in the quarter”