Q4 2026 · the quarter TSLA reports
Sales
PricedIn$29.4B$26.6B – $32.5B
$26.6B$28.0B$29.4B$30.8B$32.5B
adjusted EPS
PricedIn$0.50$0.27 – $0.76
$0.27$0.39$0.50$0.62$0.76
Middlethe forecast50% range1 in 4 chance the result comes in below this bar, 1 in 4 above it. Half the time it lands inside.80% range1 in 10 chance below this line, 1 in 10 above it. These are the low and high printed by each number.
The models agree on a thin quarter, with operating margins of 0.8% to 3.4% and capital spending near $7.0B. Grok, lowest at $28.3B, holds that 'That drawdown cannot be repeated from an 11-day stock' and that the quarter 'does not turn the whole production increase into customer revenue'. Sol, highest at $30.3B, counts 'including $4 billion of storage and about $4.8 billion of services'. Sol's range is widest, $0.15 to $0.95 a share: 'the lower ones allow batteries and logistics to disappoint', the upper 'allow faster supply release'.
Fourth-quarter sales of about $29.4B, a modest rise as record factory output meets the largest car order backlog in four years.
Sales$29.4B+18% on Q4 2025 ($24.9B)50% range$28.0B – $30.8B80% range$26.6B – $32.5B
Adjusted EPS$0.50+0% on Q4 2025 ($0.50)50% range$0.39 – $0.6280% range$0.27 – $0.76
Investment and cash generation
Base case
Capital spending$6.96B
Free cash flow−$1.65B
Free cash flow: operating cash flow less capital spending.
Tesla's third quarter brought $28.0B of sales, flat on a year earlier and 2.6% below our forecast, but adjusted earnings per share of $0.48 beat our $0.44. Gross margin recovered to 19.6% from 16.8% in the second quarter. The company delivered 486,532 cars but built only 464,391, cutting unsold stock to 11 days.
Management says demand exceeds production, the order backlog is the largest in four years and factories are running at record rates. Yet battery availability still limits car output. Energy margin jumped to 33.1%, partly on one-time tariff refunds and warranty credits, and research spending keeps rising until Cybercab, Optimus and new Megapacks sell in volume.
The six AI models average $29.4B of fourth-quarter sales, within $26.6B to $32.5B. Most assume 480,000 to 505,000 deliveries, energy storage near $3.6B and research spending near $3.0B. Adjusted earnings per share average $0.50, but the operating margin is only 2.1%.
They split on how much new output arrives. Grok, lowest at $28.3B, says the third quarter's draw on stock cannot repeat. Sol, highest at $30.3B, counts on about 500,000 deliveries and a storage rebound. On earnings Muse is highest at $0.60 and Grok lowest at $0.42.
Earnings per share build from gross profit of about $5.7B less about $5.0B of operating costs, a thin 2.1% operating margin; interest income and the add-back of stock pay carry adjusted earnings to about $0.50.
Sales by quarter
Q2 2025$22.5B−12%
Q3 2025$28.1B+12%
Q4 2025$24.9B−3%
Q1 2026$22.4B+16%
Q2 2026$28.2B+26%
Q3 2026$28.0B−0%
Q4 2026$29.4B+18%
Each percent is on the same quarter a year earlier. The last row is the models' forecast.
The quarter forecast, line by line
The lines as the company's statement shows them. The forecast columns are the average of the models, line by line. Sales growth is the change on the same quarter a year earlier. Earnings per share is the headline's: the company's own for the reported quarter, and for a forecast quarter worked out from the averaged lines with the company's adjustments.
What it rests on
- Third-quarter deliveries
- 486,532 cars, down 2% on a year earlier
Total deliveries(1) 497,099 418,227 358,023 480,126 486,532 -2%
Third-quarter 2026 update - Unsold stock
- 11 days of supply, down from 15
Global vehicle inventory (days of supply)(5) 10 15 27 15 11
Third-quarter 2026 update - Order backlog
- Largest passenger car backlog in four years
We ended the quarter with the largest backlog for our passenger vehicles in four years.
Third-quarter 2026 update - Battery limit
- Battery availability still limited car volumes
While battery availability continued to be the limiting factor in increasing auto volumes in the quarter
Third-quarter 2026 update - Energy margin
- Rose from 20.4% to 33.1% in the third quarter
Energy gross margins improved from 20.4% to 33.1%.
Third-quarter 2026 earnings call - Capital spending
- About $20.0B for all of 2026
We're revising our CapEx guidance to be approximately $20 billion for the current year
Third-quarter 2026 earnings call
Low and high
Basethe middle forecast
Key assumptions
Energy margin falls back to about 25% to 28% from the third quarter's 33.1%. The third quarter had tariff refunds and warranty credits; management's long-run norm is the low to mid 20s.5 of 6
- Opus 5.5I assume about 25-26% for the fourth quarter and the first quarter of 2027
- GPT-6.1 SolThe fourth-quarter storage gross margin is 26%
- Grok 4.7The base uses about a 26 percent energy margin near term
- GLM 5.3so I normalized to about 28 percent for Q4
- Muse WonderI did not carry the 33 percent third quarter energy margin forward.
Deliveries of about 480,000 to 505,000 cars, only a little above third-quarter production. Unsold stock is down to 11 days, so deliveries must come from new output; factories run at record rates.4 of 6
- Opus 5.5I set fourth-quarter deliveries only a little above third-quarter production (about 500,000)
- GPT-6.1 SolMy fourth-quarter middle assumes about 500,000 passenger deliveries
- Grok 4.7The middle now uses about 480,000 deliveries
- GLM 5.3I built Q4 on roughly 505,000 deliveries
Capital spending of about $7.0B turns quarterly free cash flow negative, near −$1.6B. The company guided about $20.0B for 2026, and roughly $13 billion was spent in the first nine months.4 of 6
- Opus 5.5the fourth quarter carries about $7 billion
- GPT-6.1 Solthe fourth quarter needs about $7 billion
- Grok 4.7the fourth quarter is the remainder after $13 billion already spent, about $7 billion
- GLM 5.3that implies about $7 billion in Q4
Robotaxi adds almost nothing to this quarter's sales. The finance chief said ride-hailing will not move the needle this quarter.4 of 6
- Opus 5.5Robotaxi revenue is near zero in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of 2027
- GPT-6.1 SolRobotaxi is not the explanation for fourth-quarter sales growth.
- Grok 4.7Ride-hailing will not move this quarter's results.
- Muse WonderI kept robot taxi revenue immaterial in the fourth quarter of 2026
Research and other operating costs keep rising, to about $5.0B in the quarter. Management said operating spending keeps growing until the new products are commercialized.3 of 6
- Opus 5.5operating expenses keep climbing about $300 million a quarter
- GPT-6.1 SolResearch spending rises to $3.05 billion in the fourth quarter
- Grok 4.7Operating expenses are still rising because of computing depreciation, chip work, and pre-production costs
If all of this happens
$29.4Bsales
$0.50adjusted EPS
$6.96BCapital spending
−$1.65BFree cash flow
Cash walk not supplied by every model.
Lowabout 1 chance in 10 of worse
What the low case assumes
Car output stays near the third quarter's 464,391 as battery packs stay scarce. The company said battery availability limited car volumes in the quarter just reported.6 of 6
- Grok 4.7Battery packs remain the limit on how many cars can be built
- Muse WonderVehicle production and deliveries stall near current levels
- GPT-6.1 SolBattery and electronic component shortages
- GLM 5.3Battery cell and pack supply caps the production ramp
- Gemini 4 ArgonSlower vehicle production and delivery growth due to battery pack assembly bottlenecks
- Opus 5.5Battery pack supply and new-product ramps stall vehicle output near 2026 levels
Energy shipments and prices disappoint once one-time refund and warranty help fades. Deployments follow customer timelines; management sees long-run energy margins in the low to mid 20s.4 of 6
- Grok 4.7Energy storage shipments and prices disappoint once one-time tariff and warranty benefits fade
- Muse WonderEnergy storage deployments slip and margins normalise lower
- GPT-6.1 SolStorage installation delays and price competition
- GLM 5.3Energy margins normalize to the low 20s as low-cost competition and tariffs bite
Research and computing costs keep rising with little new revenue. Management said growing operating spending continues until the new products are commercialized.4 of 6
- Grok 4.7Research and computing costs keep rising with little ride-hailing revenue
- Opus 5.5research and development rising faster than gross profit
- Muse WonderResearch, selling and fleet costs rise faster than sales
- GLM 5.3Operating expenses keep rising with AI, fab and robotics spending
Discounts, financing subsidies and warranty costs push earnings per share toward Sol's $0.15. Loan subsidies are booked up front against revenue and rise with interest rates.3 of 6
- GPT-6.1 SolVehicle discounts, financing subsidies and warranty costs
- Gemini 4 Argonhigh consumer financing rates requiring upfront interest rate subsidies
- Muse WonderRegulatory credits fade and financing costs stay high
If all of this happens
$26.6Bsales · −9% vs base
$0.27EPS · −47% vs base
Sales would have to fall to about $26.6B, 9.4% under the base, with earnings per share near $0.27. That takes car output stuck near the third quarter's pace as battery packs stay scarce, energy shipments slipping once the one-time refund help fades, and research costs climbing regardless. Muse's sales low is furthest at $26.0B because it lets car output stall and energy deployments slip together. Sol goes furthest on earnings, to $0.15, because it adds discounts, financing subsidies and warranty costs on top of the shortages.
In the first quarter of 2026, with unsold stock at 27 days, sales were $22.4B. Third-quarter deliveries already ran about 22,000 cars ahead of production.
The six lows run from $26.0B (Muse Wonder) to $28.2B (GLM 5.3).
First signA fourth-quarter delivery count well below 480,000 cars, published shortly after the quarter ends, in early 2027.
Highabout 1 chance in 10 of better
What the high case assumes
Battery-pack capacity frees up and deliveries pass 520,000 cars. The company says it has secured more future supply and its factories are running at record rates.5 of 6
- Opus 5.5Battery pack capacity frees up
- Grok 4.7Faster factory output as battery-pack projects in Europe, Nevada, and China come online
- GPT-6.1 SolFaster factory utilization and vehicle supply growth
- Gemini 4 Argonrapid resolution of in-house battery cell and pack bottlenecks
- Muse WonderVehicle production jumps toward a much higher annual rate
Energy storage prices and margins rise on data-center orders. Management said 2027 Megapacks are almost sold out and expects margins to increase meaningfully.5 of 6
- Grok 4.7Energy storage margins rise on data-center orders, as management expects
- GPT-6.1 SolStrong storage pricing and domestic cell economics
- Opus 5.5energy storage prices and margins rising
- GLM 5.3Energy gross margins expanding meaningfully on data-center demand
- Muse WonderEnergy storage stays sold out with stronger prices and margins
Paid self-driving sign-ups keep climbing and wider approvals lift car demand. Over 75% of North American buyers signed up at delivery; management expects European approval soon.4 of 6
- Grok 4.7Broader self-driving approval lifts both car demand and paid software
- GPT-6.1 SolRapid paid software and driverless-fleet monetization
- Opus 5.5broad self-driving approvals in Europe and China
- Gemini 4 ArgonEarly European Union and Chinese regulatory approvals for full self-driving software driving a surge in high-margin recurring subscription revenue
If all of this happens
$32.5Bsales · +10% vs base
$0.76EPS · +51% vs base
Sales would have to reach about $32.5B, 10% above the base, with earnings per share near $0.76. Battery-pack lines in Europe, Nevada and China would need to come on fast enough to push deliveries past 520,000, energy storage would need a big quarter from the new Texas factory with prices recovering after the refunds, and paid self-driving would need to keep climbing. Sol goes furthest, to $34.2B and $0.95, because it lets faster supply, strong storage pricing and rapid paid software all arrive together, from a higher middle of $30.3B.
No reported quarter has topped $28.2B of sales. The best storage quarter so far, the fourth quarter of 2025, deployed 14.2 gigawatt-hours.
The six highs run from $31.6B (Opus 5.5) to $34.2B (GPT-6.1 Sol).
First signA fourth-quarter delivery count above 530,000 cars in early 2027, followed by a record energy quarter in the results.
Watch
The fourth-quarter delivery count in early 2027 comes first: well above 500,000 cars points higher, under 480,000 lower. Then the results: whether energy margin holds in the mid to high 20s without refunds, and whether research spending keeps outrunning gross profit.
Q1 2027 · the quarter after
Sales
PricedIn$27.9B$24.6B – $31.4B
$24.6B$26.2B$27.9B$29.6B$31.4B
adjusted EPS
PricedIn$0.38$0.12 – $0.69
$0.12$0.25$0.38$0.52$0.69
Middlethe forecast50% range1 in 4 chance the result comes in below this bar, 1 in 4 above it. Half the time it lands inside.80% range1 in 10 chance below this line, 1 in 10 above it. These are the low and high printed by each number.
All six expect a seasonal dip and operating margins near zero. Muse, lowest at $26.5B, keeps 'robot taxi revenue immaterial' until the second quarter of 2027. Gemini, highest at $28.7B, applies only 'first-quarter softness' and expects 'rapid energy storage growth in 2027 and 2028'. Opus is lowest on earnings at $0.23. Sol's range is widest, a loss of $0.10 to $0.95 a share: shortages and subsidies at one end, 'faster supply release' at the other.
First-quarter 2027 sales of about $27.9B, a seasonal dip after the fourth quarter as winter and holiday shutdowns slow deliveries.
Sales$27.9B+25% on Q1 2026 ($22.4B)50% range$26.2B – $29.6B80% range$24.6B – $31.4B
Adjusted EPS$0.38−8% on Q1 2026 ($0.41)50% range$0.25 – $0.5280% range$0.12 – $0.69
Investment and cash generation
Capital spending: not supplied by every model
Free cash flow: not supplied by every model
Free cash flow: operating cash flow less capital spending.
The first quarter is usually Tesla's weakest: sales fell 25% in the first quarter of 2025 and 10% in the first quarter of 2026 from the quarter before. This time the company enters with its largest car backlog in four years and little unsold stock, so the dip may be shallower.
Management says robotaxi revenue may become noticeable only from the second quarter of 2027, so it adds little here. Research spending keeps climbing for Cybercab and Optimus, and the chief executive would be surprised if Europe-wide approval of self-driving software takes longer than the first quarter.
The AI models average $27.9B of sales, 5.2% below their fourth quarter, within $24.6B to $31.4B. Operating margin falls to about 0.1% on average, and adjusted earnings per share average $0.38, 25% below the fourth quarter.
Grok and Gemini expect dips of only 1.1% and 0.9%, because factories are limited by output, not demand. Muse expects a 10% drop to $26.5B. On earnings Opus is lowest at $0.23 and GLM highest at $0.47.
Gross profit near $5.3B barely covers about $5.2B of operating costs, so reported operating income is near zero; interest income and the add-back of stock pay carry adjusted earnings per share to about $0.38.
What it rests on
- Robotaxi timing
- Noticeable probably from the second quarter of 2027, a big deal late that year
I would say it's not going to move the needle this quarter, but if you say maybe it starts to become noticeable probably in Q2 and then probably a big deal by Q3 or Q4 of next year.
Third-quarter 2026 earnings call - European approval
- Management would be surprised if approval takes longer than the first quarter
But I would be surprised if it takes longer than Q1.
Third-quarter 2026 earnings call - Operating spending
- Keeps growing until new products are commercialized
This trend of growing OPEX would continue till we commercialize these new products.
Third-quarter 2026 earnings call - Unsold stock
- 11 days of supply at the end of the third quarter
Global vehicle inventory (days of supply)(5) 10 15 27 15 11
Third-quarter 2026 update - Robot deliveries
- Optimus deliveries to customers likely towards the end of 2027
when we start delivering it to customers, which is likely to be towards the end of next year.
Third-quarter 2026 earnings call
Low and high
Basethe middle forecast
Key assumptions
Robotaxi revenue stays near zero. The finance chief expects it to become noticeable only from the second quarter of 2027.3 of 6
- Opus 5.5Robotaxi revenue is near zero in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of 2027
- Grok 4.7It may become noticeable in the second quarter of 2027
- Muse Wondernoticeable from the second quarter of 2027 and large only late in 2027
Research spending keeps rising, to about $3.1B in the quarter. Management says spending grows until Cybercab, Optimus and new Megapacks are sold in volume.3 of 6
- Opus 5.5$3.2 billion in the first quarter of 2027
- GPT-6.1 Sol$3.25 billion the next quarter
- Grok 4.7Research spending and capital spending stay elevated for several years
Energy margin stays near 25% to 26% after one-time help fades. The third quarter's 33.1% included refunds; management's long-run norm is the low to mid 20s.3 of 6
- Opus 5.5I assume about 25-26% for the fourth quarter and the first quarter of 2027
- Grok 4.7The base uses about a 26 percent energy margin near term
- Muse WonderEnergy storage grows from data centre demand with margins in the low to mid twenties after one offs fade
A seasonal dip of about 5.2% from the fourth quarter, smaller than recent first quarters. Factories are limited by output with a four-year-high backlog, so winter and holiday shutdowns trim volume only a little.2 of 6
- Grok 4.7With a four-year order book and factories already limited by batteries, that pattern trims volume only a little.
- Gemini 4 Argonfollowed by first-quarter softness due to winter weather in North America and Europe and Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in China
If all of this happens
$27.9Bsales
$0.38adjusted EPS
Lowabout 1 chance in 10 of worse
What the low case assumes
Car output stays flat near 2026 levels as battery packs remain scarce. Battery availability still limited car volumes in the latest quarter.4 of 6
- Opus 5.5Battery pack supply and new-product ramps stall vehicle output near 2026 levels
- Muse WonderVehicle production and deliveries stall near current levels
- Grok 4.7Battery packs remain the limit on how many cars can be built
- GPT-6.1 SolBattery and electronic component shortages
Energy deployments slip and margins normalise lower. Deployments are tied to customer timelines and largely out of the company's control.3 of 6
- Muse WonderEnergy storage deployments slip and margins normalise lower
- Opus 5.5energy storage margin in the low 20s
- Gemini 4 ArgonCustomer site and grid interconnection delays in utility-scale energy storage alongside intensified price competition and rising raw material costs
Research spending outruns gross profit. Management expects operating costs to keep rising until new products sell.3 of 6
- Opus 5.5research and development rising faster than gross profit
- Grok 4.7Research and computing costs keep rising with little ride-hailing revenue
- Gemini 4 ArgonContinued rapid growth in research and development and compute depreciation expenses while new hardware products take longer to reach commercial scale
Discounts, financing subsidies and warranty costs push earnings per share to a loss. Loan subsidies are booked up front against revenue and rise with interest rates.2 of 6
- GPT-6.1 SolVehicle discounts, financing subsidies and warranty costs
- Muse WonderRegulatory credits fade and financing costs stay high
If all of this happens
$24.6Bsales · −12% vs base
$0.12EPS · −67% vs base
Sales would have to fall to about $24.6B, 12% under the base, with earnings per share near $0.12. That means a deep seasonal drop like early 2025, battery packs still capping output, energy deployments slipping and costs rising regardless. Opus and Muse go furthest on sales, to $23.0B, with car output stalled near 2026 levels. Sol goes furthest on earnings, to a loss of $0.10 a share, because it adds discounts, financing subsidies and warranty costs to the shortages while research spending keeps rising.
Sales fell 25% to $19.3B in the first quarter of 2025 and 10% to $22.4B in the first quarter of 2026.
The six lows run from $23.0B (Muse Wonder) to $26.8B (GLM 5.3).
First signFourth-quarter deliveries below about 470,000 in early 2027, or a first-quarter 2027 energy margin near 20%.
Highabout 1 chance in 10 of better
What the high case assumes
Battery-pack capacity frees up, lifting production well above 2026 rates. The company says it has secured more future supply and investments are starting to lift output.3 of 6
- Opus 5.5Battery pack capacity frees up
- GPT-6.1 SolFaster factory utilization and vehicle supply growth
- Grok 4.7Faster factory output as battery-pack projects in Europe, Nevada, and China come online
Europe approves self-driving software early in 2027, lifting demand and subscriptions. The chief executive would be surprised if Europe-wide approval took longer than the first quarter.3 of 6
- Opus 5.5broad self-driving approvals in Europe and China
- GLM 5.3EU-wide and China FSD approvals with attach rates pushing past 80 percent
- Gemini 4 ArgonEarly European Union and Chinese regulatory approvals for full self-driving software driving a surge in high-margin recurring subscription revenue
Energy storage prices and margins rise as the Texas factory ramps. Megapacks are almost sold out for 2027 and management expects margins to increase meaningfully.3 of 6
- GPT-6.1 SolStrong storage pricing and domestic cell economics
- Grok 4.7Energy storage margins rise on data-center orders, as management expects
- Gemini 4 ArgonFast ramp of the 50 gigawatt-hour Texas Megafactory toward full capacity with expanding gross margins from data center demand and domestic battery cells
If all of this happens
$31.4Bsales · +13% vs base
$0.69EPS · +82% vs base
Sales would have to hold near $31.4B, 13% above the base, with earnings per share near $0.69. Battery-pack capacity would need to free up, Europe would need to approve self-driving software early in the year, and the new Texas factory would need to ship energy storage in volume at higher prices. Sol goes furthest, to $33.7B and $0.95, because it lets faster factory use, strong storage pricing and rapid paid software land together from its higher middle of $28.6B.
Recent first quarters brought $19.3B and $22.4B of sales; the best recent quarter was $28.2B.
The six highs run from $30.0B (Opus 5.5) to $33.7B (GPT-6.1 Sol).
First signEurope-wide approval of supervised self-driving in early 2027, with quarterly production above 520,000 cars.
Watch
The fourth-quarter delivery count and the first report of 2027: how deep the seasonal dip runs, whether Europe approves self-driving by the end of the first quarter, and whether energy margin holds in the mid 20s once refunds are gone.