cutoff 5 November 2026, 17:46 ET
The forecast for Moderna: the next two quarters line by line, three years of sales and EPS, a low and a high case. Next report: Q3 2026 on 6 November before the open.
Sales and earnings outlook
Next quarter · Q3 2026
Sales$0.85B−16% on Q3 2025
Diluted EPS−$1.10+116% on Q3 2025
Investment and cash generation
Base case
Capital spending$65.0M
Free cash flow−$1.92B
Free cash flow: operating cash flow less capital spending.
Capital spending of $65.0M goes mainly to the Norwood fill-and-finish plant and equipment at Marlborough for the cancer therapy; neither adds sales this quarter. Free cash flow here is operating cash flow less capital spending. The PricedIn free cash flow of −$1.9B comes from the July litigation payment, which Analyst A counts at −$876M of operating cash, and a seasonal receivables build of −$714M collected in the fourth quarter.4 of 5
- Analyst AOperating cash outflow of 876 million dollars for the Arbutus/Genevant settlement paid in July 2026, equal to the 950 million dollar lump-sum payment less the 74 million dollar capitalized intangible asset recorded on the settlement date
- Analyst BMy quarterly allocation, weighted to the disclosed Norwood fill/finish project and ongoing Marlborough intismeran equipment; Merck funds half of intismeran investments.
- Analyst EPay operating portion already charged in first quarter, rather than expensing it again.
- Analyst DSeason shipments at quarter end raise receivables, as in prior third quarters.
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- Three years of sales and earnings per share, each with its low and high case, the five analysts' own numbers and the story
- The forecast after the call, the same day
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