Sales
PricedIn$112B$107B – $117B
$107B$112B$117B
adjusted EPS
PricedIn$2.57$2.38 – $2.74
$2.38$2.57$2.74
Middlethe forecast80% range1 in 10 chance below this bar, 1 in 10 above it. These are the low and high printed by each number.
All five put sales above the outlook, from $110B (GLM) to $114B (Opus); they differ only on how large the beat will be.
Sales of about $112B in the quarter to October, a beat on the company's own outlook as Vera Rubin starts shipping.
Sales$112B$107B – $117B · +97% on Q3 FY26 ($57B)
Adjusted EPS$2.57$2.38 – $2.74 · +98% on Q3 FY26 ($1.30)
Investment and cash generation
Base case
Capital spending$3.30B
Free cash flow$42.5B
Free cash flow: operating cash flow less capital spending.
Sales reached $96.2B in the quarter to July, up 18% on the quarter, at a 75% gross margin and $2.22 of adjusted earnings per share. For the quarter to October the company guided sales of $108.0B, give or take 2%, with gross margin of 74% as memory prices climb. It expects its new Vera Rubin systems to be about a fifth of data center sales.
All five models put sales above the outlook, because the company has beaten its own guide by about 2.5% to 6% in each recent quarter. Opus and MiMo assume a full-sized beat; Sol assumes a smaller one, saying the new system ramp and memory bottlenecks raise execution risk. GLM sits closest to the guide.
On margins the five agree: about 74% gross and 66% operating, taken almost straight from the company's outlook and cost guidance.
Adjusted earnings per share of about $2.57 comes from roughly $83.0B of gross profit at a 74% margin, about $9.0B of operating costs and a 16% tax rate. Stock pay now counts as a cost in the adjusted figure.
Outlook against result
Q1 FY26+2.5%$43B → $44B
Q2 FY26+3.9%$45B → $47B
Q3 FY26+5.6%$54B → $57B
Q4 FY26+4.8%$65B → $68B
Q1 FY27+4.6%$78B → $82B
Q2 FY27+5.7%$91B → $96B
Q3 FY27+3.8%$108B → $112B
Each outlook is the one the company gave before the quarter. The last row is the models' forecast.
The quarter forecast, line by line
The lines as the company's statement shows them. The forecast columns are the average of the models, line by line. Sales growth is the change on the same quarter a year earlier. Earnings per share is the headline's: the company's own for the reported quarter, and for a forecast quarter worked out from the averaged lines with the company's adjustments.
What it rests on
- Quarter outlook
- $108.0B in sales, plus or minus 2%, with no China data center sales assumed
•Revenue is expected to be $108.0 billion, plus or minus 2%. We are not assuming any Data Center compute revenue from China in our outlook.
Second-quarter commentary, August 2026 - Margin outlook
- Gross margin of 74.0%, plus or minus half a point
•GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins are expected to be 74.0%, plus or minus 50 basis points.
Second-quarter commentary, August 2026 - Last quarter's sales
- $96.2B, up 106% on a year earlier and 18% on the quarter
Revenue for the second quarter was a record $96.2 billion, up 106% from a year ago and up 18% sequentially.
Second-quarter commentary, August 2026 - Vera Rubin share
- About 20% of data center sales this quarter; cloud giants reaccelerate later
We expect sequential growth to be driven primarily by AC, I, and E with data center, while growth in hyperseal is expected to reaccelerate in Q4 and into fiscal year 28, as supply of Vera Rubin grows over time. We see Vera Rubin accounting for about 20% of data center revenue in Q3.
Earnings call, August 26, 2026 - Slower collections
- Days of sales outstanding rose to 60 from 45 on longer payment terms
Accounts receivable was $63.1 billion with 60 days sales outstanding (DSO), up from 45 days sequentially, due to extended payment terms on large, multi-quarter agreements with certain investment-grade customers.
Second-quarter commentary, August 2026
Low and high
Base $112B sales, $2.57 adjusted EPS: the story above.
$3.30BCapital spending
$42.5BFree cash flow
Cash walk not supplied by every model.
Lowabout 1 chance in 10 of worse
$107Bsales · −5% vs base
$2.38EPS · −7% vs base
The beat stops: sales land around $107B, 4.6% below the base and just under the outlook, because Vera Rubin racks or memory arrive late. Earnings per share would be near $2.38.
Opus notes the company has not missed its outlook midpoint in this period, so even the low sits close to the guide.
Sales only meet the outlook, with no usual beat5 of 5
- Opus 5.5Sales land near the bottom of the third-quarter outlook.
- GPT-6.1 SolThird-quarter sales below about $106 billion
- Grok 4.7A third-quarter sales print at or below the 108 billion dollar outlook
- GLM 5.3Third-quarter revenue at or below the low end of the $108 billion guide
- MiMo-V2.6-Prorevenue only at or just above the $108 billion guide rather than the usual beat
Vera Rubin racks or memory supply slip3 of 5
- Grok 4.7Vera Rubin yields and rack supply slip, so the hyperscale rebound expected next quarter is delayed
- GPT-6.1 SolDelays in chips, memory and ready-to-use data centers
- Opus 5.5memory and packaging supply
The five lows run from $104B (GPT-6.1 Sol) to $109B (Opus 5.5).
First signThe November 17 report: sales at or below $108.0B, or gross margin under 73.5%.
Highabout 1 chance in 10 of better
$117Bsales · +4% vs base
$2.74EPS · +7% vs base
Supply opens faster and the beat matches its recent best, taking sales to about $117B, 4.5% above the base, and earnings per share to about $2.74.
GLM counts beats of 4.6% to 5.7% on the outlook in each of the last three quarters.
Supply and yields improve faster than planned4 of 5
- Opus 5.5faster supply additions
- GPT-6.1 SolSupplier capacity and yields improve faster than planned
- GLM 5.3Supply arrives faster than guided (foundry yields, memory allocation)
- MiMo-V2.6-Prothe company finds more capacity through 2027
The beat continues at its recent size3 of 5
- GLM 5.3The guide-beat pattern continues: 4.6-5.7% beats in each of the last three quarters
- Opus 5.5The third quarter beats by 7% or more.
- MiMo-V2.6-Prothe third quarter prints $118 billion or better with margin holding
Vera Rubin becomes the fastest ramp in company history2 of 5
- Grok 4.7Vera Rubin is the fastest product ramp in the company's history
- MiMo-V2.6-ProVera Rubin — the fastest product ramp in the company's history — carries the fourth quarter and fiscal 2028
The five highs run from $114B (GLM 5.3) to $119B (MiMo-V2.6-Pro).
First signSales above about $117B on November 17, with gross margin above 74.5%.
Watch
November 17: sales against the $108.0B outlook and gross margin against 74%. Above $117B points higher; at or below $108.0B, or margin under 73.5%, points lower. Days of sales outstanding climbing past 60 would also be a warning.
Sales
PricedIn$129B$118B – $141B
$118B$129B$141B
adjusted EPS
PricedIn$2.88$2.51 – $3.24
$2.51$2.88$3.24
Middlethe forecast80% range1 in 10 chance below this bar, 1 in 10 above it. These are the low and high printed by each number.
All five see 13% to 17% growth on the third quarter; Sol's range, $112B to $151B, is the widest and GLM's the narrowest.
Sales of about $129B as Vera Rubin supply reaches the largest cloud companies, even as memory costs push gross margin to its low.
Sales$129B$118B – $141B · +89% on Q4 FY26 ($68B)
Adjusted EPS$2.88$2.51 – $3.24 · +81% on Q4 FY26 ($1.59)
Investment and cash generation
Capital spending: not supplied by every model
Free cash flow: not supplied by every model
Free cash flow: operating cash flow less capital spending.
The company expects growth at the largest cloud companies to pick up again in the quarter to January as Vera Rubin supply grows. It also expects gross margin to bottom there, at 71% to 72%, because memory prices have risen more than it planned. The quarter runs 14 weeks, one more than usual.
All five models see a step of 13% to 17% on the third quarter, middles from $126B (GLM) to $131B (MiMo). Their numbers match what the year totals leave for the quarter.
Sol has the widest range, $112B to $151B, allowing both a stalled ramp and a fast one. GLM is the most cautious, holding its high at $134B.
Earnings per share of about $2.88: gross margin dips to about 72% as memory costs peak, operating costs rise to about $9.6B, and the tax rate holds near 16%.
The quarter forecast, line by line
The lines as the company's statement shows them. The forecast columns are the average of the models, line by line. Sales growth is the change on the same quarter a year earlier. Earnings per share is the headline's: the company's own for the reported quarter, and for a forecast quarter worked out from the averaged lines with the company's adjustments.
What it rests on
- Margin low point
- Gross margin to bottom at 71% to 72%, then 72% to 73% next year
We expect margins to bottom in Q4 in the 71% to 72% range, before settling at 72% to 73% in fiscal year 28, as executed price increases take effect in Q1.
Earnings call, August 26, 2026 - Memory prices
- Price rises beyond expectations and heading higher into next year
we are experiencing extreme pricing conditions in memory. The magnitude of the price increase has exceeded our prior expectations and are headed even higher into next year.
Earnings call, August 26, 2026 - Vera Rubin orders
- Orders from every major cloud, AI cloud and system maker
Having already received purchase orders from every major hyperscaler, AI cloud, and system OEM, we expect Vera Rubin to mark the fastest product ramp in NVIDIA's history.
Earnings call, August 26, 2026 - Longer quarter
- The fourth quarter runs 14 weeks in a 53-week year
Fiscal year 2027 is a 53-week year, and fiscal year 2026 was a 52-week year, both ending on the last Sunday in January. The second quarters of fiscal years 2027 and 2026 were both 13-week quarters. The fourth quarter of fiscal year 2027 will be a 14-week quarter.
Quarterly report, July 2026
Low and high
Base $129B sales, $2.88 adjusted EPS: the story above.
Lowabout 1 chance in 10 of worse
$118Bsales · −9% vs base
$2.51EPS · −13% vs base
Vera Rubin supply builds slowly and memory pinches, so sales reach about $118B, 8.7% below the base, with gross margin below 71% and earnings per share near $2.51.
Even the low means about 5.1% growth on the third quarter; every quarter in the record has grown.
Vera Rubin supply builds slowly3 of 5
- Grok 4.7Vera Rubin yields and rack supply slip, so the hyperscale rebound expected next quarter is delayed
- Opus 5.5Supply of memory and advanced packaging falls short
- GPT-6.1 SolDelays in chips, memory and ready-to-use data centers
Memory costs push gross margin under 71%3 of 5
- GLM 5.3Fourth-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue lands near $118 billion with gross margin below 71%
- MiMo-V2.6-Propushes gross margin below 71% in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2027
- Opus 5.5Gross margin sinks toward 70% as memory costs outrun price increases.
AI labs and smaller clouds struggle to finance purchases3 of 5
- Opus 5.5customer financing for artificial intelligence labs and smaller cloud providers
- GPT-6.1 SolCustomer financing fails to convert demand into purchases
- MiMo-V2.6-ProAI labs and neoclouds hit financing walls and pull back orders after the 2026 commitments
The five lows run from $112B (GPT-6.1 Sol) to $123B (MiMo-V2.6-Pro).
First signA fourth-quarter outlook on November 17 implying little growth on the third quarter, with days of sales outstanding climbing further.
Highabout 1 chance in 10 of better
$141Bsales · +10% vs base
$3.24EPS · +13% vs base
Supply opens and cloud orders reaccelerate hard, taking sales to about $141B, 9.6% above the base, and earnings per share to about $3.24.
Growth of 26% on the quarter before would top the record's fastest step, 22% in the third quarter of fiscal 2026.
Supply additions arrive faster than planned3 of 5
- Opus 5.5faster supply additions
- GPT-6.1 SolSupply catches up with exceptionally strong demand
- MiMo-V2.6-Prothe company finds more capacity through 2027
Cloud giants' orders reaccelerate as Vera Rubin ramps2 of 5
- Grok 4.7hyperscale orders reaccelerate hard
- GLM 5.3Hyperscale growth reaccelerates from the fourth quarter as Rubin supply grows
Price increases more than cover memory costs2 of 5
- Grok 4.7price increases more than cover memory
- GPT-6.1 SolPrice increases and operating scale protect earnings
The five highs run from $134B (GLM 5.3) to $151B (GPT-6.1 Sol).
First signA fourth-quarter outlook above about $125B on November 17, or a gross margin outlook above 72%.
Watch
November 17: the fourth-quarter sales and margin outlook. A guide above about $136B or margin above 72% points higher; a guide below $125B, margin under 71% or worse memory price comments point lower.
Sales
PricedIn$419B$404B – $436B
$404B$419B$436B
adjusted EPS
PricedIn$9.53$8.98 – $10.11
$8.98$9.53$10.11
Middlethe forecast80% range1 in 10 chance below this bar, 1 in 10 above it. These are the low and high printed by each number.
All five sit within $414B to $422B; Sol's range, $394B to $449B, is widest because it allows a smaller beat and a bigger fourth quarter.
Sales of about $419B for the year, nearly double last year, as the second half adds Vera Rubin to Blackwell.
Sales$419B$404B – $436B · +94% on FY2026
Adjusted EPS$9.53$8.98 – $10.11 · $4.09 reported so far
Base caseGross margin73.6%71.1% in FY2026
Operating margin65.3%60.4% in FY2026
Investment and cash generation
Base case
Capital spending$11.4B
Free cash flow$164B
Free cash flow: operating cash flow less capital spending.
The first half brought $178B of sales and $4.09 of adjusted earnings per share, against $216B for all of fiscal 2026. The company guided the quarter to October at $108.0B, operating costs up in the low 50s percent for the year and a tax rate of 16.0% to 18.0%.
All five models land between $414B (GLM) and $422B (MiMo), growth of 92% to 95%, with gross margin near 74% and operating margin near 65%. They expect free cash flow of about $164B, held back by longer payment terms and inventory built for Vera Rubin.
Sol has the widest range, $394B to $449B, because it allows both a smaller beat and a much bigger fourth quarter.
Earnings per share of about $9.53: the $4.09 already reported plus about $2.57 and $2.88 in the last two quarters, at a gross margin near 74% and a tax rate near 16%.
Sales by quarter
Q1 FY26$44B+69% · margin 60.5%
Q2 FY26$47B+56% · margin 72.4%
Q3 FY26$57B+62% · margin 73.4%
Q4 FY26$68B+73% · margin 75.0%
Q1 FY27$82B+85% · margin 74.9%
Q2 FY27$96B+106% · margin 75.0%
Q3 FY27$112B+97%
Q4 FY27$129B+89%
Each percent is on the same quarter a year earlier. The forecast rows are the models' average.
What it rests on
- Operating cost growth
- Full-year operating costs to grow in the low 50s percent
Gap and non-gap operating expenses are expected to be approximately $9.2 billion and $9.0 billion, respectively. For the full year, we now expect OPEX to grow in the low 50s, driven by a broadening of our product portfolio and further increase in the usage of AI tools, which is already and will continue to enhance engineering productivity.
Earnings call, August 26, 2026 - Tax rate
- 16.0% to 18.0% for the full year
For the full year fiscal 2027, we expect GAAP and non-GAAP tax rates to be between 16.0% and 18.0%, excluding any discrete items and material changes to our tax environment.
Second-quarter commentary, August 2026 - Supplier commitments
- $279B, up from $119B a quarter earlier, mostly memory
We’ve partnered with our extensive network of suppliers to secure the critical components needed to meet demand for the next several years. Our commitments increased from $119 billion last quarter to $279 billion, primarily related to the procurement of memory.
Second-quarter commentary, August 2026 - Inventory build
- $31.6B, up from $25.8B, ahead of Vera Rubin
Inventory was $31.6 billion, up from $25.8 billion sequentially, as we prepare for the introduction of Vera Rubin in the third quarter.
Second-quarter commentary, August 2026 - Cash returned
- About $26.0B in buybacks and dividends last quarter
During the second quarter of fiscal 2027, NVIDIA returned approximately $26.0 billion to shareholders in the form of shares repurchased and cash dividends.
Second-quarter results release, August 2026
Low and high
Base $419B sales, $9.53 adjusted EPS: the story above.
$11.4BCapital spending
$164BFree cash flow
Cash walk not supplied by every model.
Lowabout 1 chance in 10 of worse
$404Bsales · −4% vs base
$8.98EPS · −6% vs base
Neither remaining quarter beats its outlook and Vera Rubin builds slowly, leaving the year near $404B, 3.7% below the base, with earnings per share near $8.98.
Even the low means growth of about 87% on fiscal 2026's $216B.
Memory costs outrun price increases5 of 5
- Opus 5.5Gross margin sinks toward 70% as memory costs outrun price increases.
- Grok 4.7Memory prices keep rising and the price increases already agreed do not fully offset them
- GPT-6.1 SolMemory costs and inventory charges reduce profit
- GLM 5.3Memory and component inflation keeps gross margin near 71%
- MiMo-V2.6-ProMemory scarcity caps shipped systems
Remaining quarters only meet the outlook3 of 5
- Opus 5.5Sales land near the bottom of the third-quarter outlook.
- Grok 4.7A third-quarter sales print at or below the 108 billion dollar outlook
- MiMo-V2.6-Prorevenue only at or just above the $108 billion guide rather than the usual beat
Vera Rubin rack supply slips2 of 5
- Grok 4.7Vera Rubin yields and rack supply slip
- GPT-6.1 SolDelays in chips, memory and ready-to-use data centers
The five lows run from $394B (GPT-6.1 Sol) to $409B (MiMo-V2.6-Pro).
First signNovember 17: third-quarter sales at or below $108.0B, or a fourth-quarter margin outlook below 71%.
Highabout 1 chance in 10 of better
$436Bsales · +4% vs base
$10.11EPS · +6% vs base
Both quarters beat at the recent pace and the fourth quarter tops $135B, lifting the year to about $436B, 4.0% above the base, with earnings per share near $10.11.
That would be growth of about 102% on fiscal 2026, close to fiscal 2025's 114%.
Supply and yields improve faster than planned3 of 5
- GPT-6.1 SolSupplier capacity and yields improve faster than planned
- Grok 4.7Supply yields improve faster than the company has locked in
- Opus 5.5faster supply additions
The beat continues at its recent size2 of 5
- GLM 5.3The guide-beat pattern continues: 4.6-5.7% beats in each of the last three quarters, which would put Q3 near $113 billion and lift the whole fiscal 2027 base
- Opus 5.5The third quarter beats by 7% or more.
Price increases protect margins2 of 5
- GPT-6.1 SolPrice increases and operating scale protect earnings
- MiMo-V2.6-ProPrice increases plus full-stack mix hold gross margin at or above 73% despite memory inflation
The five highs run from $425B (GLM 5.3) to $449B (GPT-6.1 Sol).
First signThird-quarter sales above $117B on November 17, with a fourth-quarter outlook above $135B.
Watch
November 17: the third-quarter result and fourth-quarter outlook. Above $117B with a strong guide points higher; a result near $108.0B, a fourth-quarter margin under 71% or collections stretching past 60 days point lower.
Sales
PricedIn$713B$603B – $831B
$603B$713B$831B
adjusted EPS
PricedIn$16.43$12.97 – $19.96
$12.97$16.43$19.96
Middlethe forecast80% range1 in 10 chance below this bar, 1 in 10 above it. These are the low and high printed by each number.
All five anchor on the guided 70%, from $704B (GLM) to $720B (Sol); they split on the downside, with lows from $540B (Sol) to $650B (Grok).
Sales of about $713B, matching the growth the company guided a year ahead, with supply rather than demand setting the limit.
Sales$713B$603B – $831B · +70% on FY2027
Adjusted EPS$16.43$12.97 – $19.96 · +72% on FY2027
Base caseGross margin72.5%73.6% in FY2027
Operating margin65.7%65.3% in FY2027
Investment and cash generation
Base case
Capital spending$17.2B
Free cash flow$317B
Free cash flow: operating cash flow less capital spending.
In August the company did something new: it guided a full year ahead, to about 70% sales growth in fiscal 2028. It said supply, not demand, is the limit, and that customers' forecasts point to growth doubling. It expects gross margin of 72% to 73% as price increases take effect, and has committed $87B to suppliers for the year.
All five models take the guided 70% as their middle, from $704B (GLM) to $720B (Sol), with gross margin near 72%, operating margin near 66% and free cash flow of about $317B.
They split on the downside. Lows run from $540B (Sol) to $650B (Grok), and highs from $790B to $890B. The main worry is that roughly a quarter of next year's business comes from AI labs the company helps finance.
Earnings per share of about $16.43, up 72%, as sales grow faster than operating costs and gross margin settles near 72%; buybacks trim the share count slowly.
Sales by year
FY2024$61B
FY2025$130B+114%
FY2026$216B+65%
FY2027$419B+94%
FY2028$713B+70%
FY2029$957B+34%
The forecast years are the models' average.
Supply commitments by the fiscal year they fall due
Rest of fiscal 2027$92.0B
Fiscal 2028$87.0B
Fiscal 2029$88.0B
Fiscal 2030$6.0B
Fiscal 2031$5.0B
Where each number comes from
- Rest of fiscal 2027
Supply and capacity $ 92 $ 87 $ 88 $ 6 $ 5 $ 1 $ 279
- Fiscal 2028
Supply and capacity $ 92 $ 87 $ 88 $ 6 $ 5 $ 1 $ 279
- Fiscal 2029
Supply and capacity $ 92 $ 87 $ 88 $ 6 $ 5 $ 1 $ 279
- Fiscal 2030
Supply and capacity $ 92 $ 87 $ 88 $ 6 $ 5 $ 1 $ 279
- Fiscal 2031
Supply and capacity $ 92 $ 87 $ 88 $ 6 $ 5 $ 1 $ 279
Mostly memory. The $87B due in fiscal 2028 is the supply behind the guided growth; little is committed beyond fiscal 2029.
What it rests on
- Next-year outlook
- About 70% growth, with supply a bottleneck through fiscal 2028
Looking ahead, our preliminary expectation is for fiscal year 28 revenue to grow approximately 70% year-over-year. Although we will work to close the supply-demand gap, we expect supply to remain a bottleneck, at least through the end of fiscal year 28.
Earnings call, August 26, 2026 - Demand above supply
- Customers' forecasts point to growth doubling next year
Customers' forecasts point to our growth doubling next year.
Earnings call, August 26, 2026 - Margin path
- 72% to 73% in fiscal 2028 as price increases take effect
We expect margins to bottom in Q4 in the 71% to 72% range, before settling at 72% to 73% in fiscal year 28, as executed price increases take effect in Q1.
Earnings call, August 26, 2026 - Lab financing
- AI labs the company helps finance: roughly a quarter of next year's business
For context, we expect demand from the AI labs, for which we expect to leverage our balance sheet to contribute toward roughly a quarter of our business next year. This remains, compute we ship, will be consumed by investment-grade customers or those that are backed by one.
Earnings call, August 26, 2026 - Largest customer
- One direct customer was 16% of second-quarter sales
For the second quarter of fiscal year 2027, one direct customer represented 16% of total revenue, which was primarily attributable to the Compute & Networking segment.
Quarterly report, July 2026
Low and high
Base $713B sales, $16.43 adjusted EPS: the story above.
$17.2BCapital spending
$317BFree cash flow
Cash walk not supplied by every model.
Lowabout 1 chance in 10 of worse
$603Bsales · −15% vs base
$12.97EPS · −21% vs base
Memory and packaging shortfalls plus AI lab financing trouble cut growth to about 44%, leaving sales near $603B, 15% below the base, and earnings per share near $12.97.
Growth of 44% would compare with 65% in fiscal 2026 and 114% in fiscal 2025.
AI labs cannot finance their builds5 of 5
- Opus 5.5customer financing for artificial intelligence labs and smaller cloud providers
- GPT-6.1 SolCustomer financing fails to convert demand into purchases
- Grok 4.7Artificial-intelligence labs, about a quarter of next year's business and partly carried on the company's own balance sheet, slow their orders
- GLM 5.3AI-lab demand backed by NVIDIA's own balance sheet (about a quarter of next year's business) disappoints
- MiMo-V2.6-ProAI labs and neoclouds hit financing walls and pull back orders after the 2026 commitments
Memory and packaging supply falls short4 of 5
- Opus 5.5memory and packaging supply
- GPT-6.1 SolDelays in chips, memory and ready-to-use data centers
- Grok 4.7Memory prices keep rising
- MiMo-V2.6-ProMemory scarcity caps shipped systems
Power and building delays push deployments out2 of 5
- Grok 4.7Power, land, and building delays push deployments out of the next two years
- GPT-6.1 Solsome customer projects cannot secure financing or power
Gross margin stays near 71%1 of 5
- GLM 5.3Memory and component inflation keeps gross margin near 71% into fiscal 2028 and delays the guided recovery
The five lows run from $540B (GPT-6.1 Sol) to $650B (Grok 4.7).
First signAny walk-back of the 70% growth figure on the November 17 call, or days of sales outstanding stretching past 60.
Highabout 1 chance in 10 of better
$831Bsales · +17% vs base
$19.96EPS · +22% vs base
Supply catches up with part of the doubling customers forecast, so sales grow about 98% to roughly $831B, 17% above the base, with earnings per share near $19.96.
Growth of 98% would sit between fiscal 2026's 65% and fiscal 2025's 114%.
More supply than the 70% plan5 of 5
- Opus 5.5faster supply additions
- GPT-6.1 SolSupply catches up with exceptionally strong demand
- Grok 4.7The company finds more supply than the 70 percent it has described
- GLM 5.3Supply arrives faster than guided
- MiMo-V2.6-Prothe company finds more capacity through 2027
Price increases hold margins up4 of 5
- Opus 5.5pricing
- Grok 4.7Price increases early next fiscal year hold
- GLM 5.3Price increases pass through faster, holding fiscal 2028 gross margin at 73% or better
- MiMo-V2.6-ProPrice increases plus full-stack mix hold gross margin at or above 73% despite memory inflation
Smaller clouds and sovereign buyers keep growing fast2 of 5
- Opus 5.5demand from smaller cloud providers and sovereign customers
- Grok 4.7keep outgrowing the hyperscale half
The five highs run from $790B (GLM 5.3) to $890B (GPT-6.1 Sol).
First signManagement raising its fiscal 2028 growth outlook above 70% on the November 17 call.
Watch
November 17: any change to the 70% figure, memory price comments and the fourth-quarter margin. A raise and margins of 72% or better point higher; a walk-back, margins below 71% or stress at an AI lab point lower.
Sales
PricedIn$957B$707B – $1,228B
$707B$957B$1,228B
adjusted EPS
PricedIn$22.60$14.97 – $30.44
$14.97$22.60$30.44
Middlethe forecast80% range1 in 10 chance below this bar, 1 in 10 above it. These are the low and high printed by each number.
They split most here: middles run from $900B (Opus) to $1,010B (Sol), growth from 26% to 40%, depending on how fast power and supply catch up.
Sales of about $957B as growth slows from the year before, with no company outlook and the widest spread of views.
Sales$957B$707B – $1,228B · +34% on FY2028
Adjusted EPS$22.60$14.97 – $30.44 · +38% on FY2028
Base caseGross margin72.9%72.5% in FY2028
Operating margin66.4%65.7% in FY2028
Investment and cash generation
Base case
Capital spending$23.2B
Free cash flow$442B
Free cash flow: operating cash flow less capital spending.
The company gives no outlook this far out. Its signals: $88B of supplier commitments fall due in fiscal 2029; the first data center at the Ohio site it backs for OpenAI is expected that year; Amazon is deploying 2 million more chips through mid-fiscal 2029; and each chip generation brings more revenue per gigawatt.
Middles run from $900B (Opus) to $1,010B (Sol), growth of 26% to 40%. All five slow growth because power, buildings, custom chips at big buyers or a pause to absorb purchases may bind.
Ranges are widest here: lows from $625B (Sol) to $810B (MiMo), highs from $1,170B to $1,390B. The average low means sales roughly flat, down 0.9% on the year before.
Earnings per share of about $22.60, up 38%, rests on gross margin near 73% and operating margin near 66%; GLM sees margins recovering more, Opus less.
Each model's growth in FY2029
Opus 5.5+26%
GPT-6.1 Sol+40%
Grok 4.7+29%
GLM 5.3+38%
MiMo-V2.6-Pro+38%
Growth of each model's middle on its own forecast for the year before.
Company revenue per gigawatt of data center power, by generation
Hopper$18.0B
Grace Blackwell$25.0B
Vera Rubin$40.0B
Where each number comes from
- Hopper
In the case of Hopper, we were at about $18 billion per gigawatt. For Grace Blackwell, we're at about $25 billion per gigawatt. And for Vera Rubin, it's about $40 billion per gigawatt. And the productivity is, you know, X factors increase in each generation.
- Grace Blackwell
In the case of Hopper, we were at about $18 billion per gigawatt. For Grace Blackwell, we're at about $25 billion per gigawatt. And for Vera Rubin, it's about $40 billion per gigawatt. And the productivity is, you know, X factors increase in each generation.
- Vera Rubin
In the case of Hopper, we were at about $18 billion per gigawatt. For Grace Blackwell, we're at about $25 billion per gigawatt. And for Vera Rubin, it's about $40 billion per gigawatt. And the productivity is, you know, X factors increase in each generation.
Each new chip generation brings in more sales per gigawatt, which is why models see sales still growing even if power is scarce.
What it rests on
- Ohio site
- Each chip generation there could mean $150B to $200B of company sales
Each generation of NVIDIA infrastructure deployed at PORTS-Pike could represent approximately 1.5 million NVIDIA GPUs, or approximately $150 billion to $200 billion in NVIDIA revenue.
Second-quarter commentary, August 2026 - Guarantee exposure
- Capped at $105B, first phase expected in fiscal 2029
Our guarantee obligations are capped at a total of $105 billion and become effective in phases as certain conditions are met, including data centers becoming ready for service, with the first expected in fiscal 2029.
Second-quarter commentary, August 2026 - Amazon deployment
- 2 million more chips through the second quarter of fiscal 2029
AWS is deploying an additional 2 million GPUs starting this quarter through the second quarter of fiscal 29
Earnings call, August 26, 2026 - Cloud spending
- Top five cloud companies near $800B in 2026, rising further in 2027
With cloud industry backlog now greater than $2 trillion, PAPX, by the top five hyperscalers, is expected to reach nearly $800 billion in 2026, and $1.3 trillion in 2027.
Earnings call, August 26, 2026
Low and high
Base $957B sales, $22.60 adjusted EPS: the story above.
$23.2BCapital spending
$442BFree cash flow
Cash walk not supplied by every model.
Lowabout 1 chance in 10 of worse
$707Bsales · −26% vs base
$14.97EPS · −34% vs base
Customers pause to absorb two years of near doubling and AI lab financing tightens, holding sales near $707B, 26% below the base and about flat on the year before, with earnings per share near $14.97.
In the record shown, sales grew 114% in fiscal 2025 and 65% in fiscal 2026; a flat year would be a sharp break.
Customers pause to absorb what they bought4 of 5
- Opus 5.5a period of digestion after the build-out
- GLM 5.3Hyperscaler and AI-cloud capital spending slows sharply after two years of 60%-plus increases — a digestion year
- MiMo-V2.6-ProHyperscaler capital spending pauses in calendar 2028 after two years of doubling
- Grok 4.7a pause by one or two large buyers is a real left-tail outcome
Financing for AI labs dries up3 of 5
- Opus 5.5customer financing for artificial intelligence labs and smaller cloud providers
- GPT-6.1 SolCustomer financing fails to convert demand into purchases
- MiMo-V2.6-ProAI labs and neoclouds hit financing walls
Custom chips take share at big buyers2 of 5
- MiMo-V2.6-Procustom chips take share at the big AI labs
- Grok 4.7the largest clouds keep designing their own chips for part of the work
The five lows run from $625B (GPT-6.1 Sol) to $810B (MiMo-V2.6-Pro).
First signFrom November 17 on: any large cloud company cutting its 2027 spending plans, or signs of stress at an AI lab the company supports.
Highabout 1 chance in 10 of better
$1,228Bsales · +28% vs base
$30.44EPS · +35% vs base
Supply catches up, Vera Rubin and its successor raise revenue per gigawatt, and the Ohio site starts shipping, pushing sales to about $1,228B, 28% above the base, with earnings per share near $30.44.
That would mean 72% growth, about the pace the company guided for fiscal 2028.
New generations raise revenue per gigawatt3 of 5
- Opus 5.5more revenue per gigawatt with Vera Rubin
- GPT-6.1 SolMore complete systems sold per unit of data center power
- Grok 4.7Vera Rubin and the following generation raise revenue per gigawatt well above the 40 billion dollars given for Vera Rubin
Supply keeps catching up with demand3 of 5
- GPT-6.1 SolSupply catches up with exceptionally strong demand
- GLM 5.3Supply arrives faster than guided
- Grok 4.7The company finds more supply than the 70 percent it has described
Outside financing turns lab demand into orders2 of 5
- MiMo-V2.6-ProThe $500 billion of third-party financing platforms and revenue-share deals convert AI lab and neocloud demand into firm orders
- GPT-6.1 SolCustomer financing supports faster deployment
Ohio and OpenAI sites pull sales forward1 of 5
- MiMo-V2.6-ProPORTS-Pike and OpenAI's 12 gigawatts pull revenue forward into fiscal 2029
The five highs run from $1,170B (GLM 5.3) to $1,390B (GPT-6.1 Sol).
First signA raise of the 70% fiscal 2028 outlook on November 17 would be the first sign supply is catching up.
Watch
From November 17: whether supply runs ahead of the 70% plan, progress at the Ohio site, cloud spending plans for 2027 and 2028, and the health of AI labs the company backs. Raises point higher; spending cuts or lab stress point lower.