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RptdFinFcst · open model estimates · v5 slate

Analog Devices (ADI) — FQ3 2026

Fiscal 2026 Q3 · quarter ended August 1, 2026 · reports August 19 before the open · 6 contract-valid models, registered before the print

Headline estimates

Current period

Company guidance — FQ3 2026

8-K Ex-99.1, verified to source bytes

3,800–4,000 revenue $M

3.15–3.45 adj EPS

Forward — fiscal years

no company fiscal-year guidance

See each model's FY columns in the forward model below.

Revenue & adjusted EPSRev p50 ($M)Rev p10–p90Adj EPS p50EPS p10–p90Δ vs guide mid
Analog Devices guidance3,800 – 4,0003.15 – 3.45
Muse Spark 1.23,9253,800 – 4,0503.413.18 – 3.64+0.6%
Grok 4.63,9353,820 – 4,0603.383.12 – 3.58+0.9%
Gemini 3.7 Flash3,9403,820 – 4,0403.453.20 – 3.65+1.0%
Kimi K33,9503,820 – 4,0753.443.18 – 3.62+1.3%
Fable 54,0003,900 – 4,0903.473.30 – 3.62+2.6%
GPT-5.6 Sol4,0203,860 – 4,1603.443.20 – 3.62+3.1%

Detailed estimates

Where the company guides in detail — and where the models land

Company detailed guidance (non-GAAP)
Revenue$3.9B +/- $100M
GAAP operating margin39.0% +/- 150 bps
Adjusted operating margin49.0% +/- 100 bps
GAAP diluted EPS$2.60 +/- $0.15
Adjusted diluted EPS$3.30 +/- $0.15
Model detail (GAAP statements)Gross mgnOp mgnGAAP EPSFCF p50 ($M)Next-Q guide forecast ($M)
Fable 568.0%40.5%2.811,3494,100 – 4,300
Gemini 3.7 Flash68.9%41.0%2.801,5004,000 – 4,200
GPT-5.6 Sol68.2%39.7%2.741,2784,000 – 4,200
Grok 4.667.7%39.8%2.681,4223,950 – 4,150
Kimi K367.3%39.7%2.741,4443,950 – 4,150
Muse Spark 1.267.5%39.9%2.701,5393,900 – 4,100

Commentary — key items

What would make each model a buyer or a seller

Condensed from each model's thesis: every trigger is an observable reported fundamental with a check date, never a price level. Full trigger sets on the model pages.

Fable 5

The FY25-FY26 upcycle must remain demand-led, not inventory-led: record B2B bookings convert into ~10% q/q revenue growth in Q3, industrial capex and AI data-center power/connectivity (comms +79% y/y in Q2) keep utilization high enough to hold adjusted GM at ~73% and adjusted OM ~49-50%, capex stays near 4% of sales so FCF conversion stays at 35-40% of revenue, and ADI keeps returning ~100% of FCF via the $1.10 dividend and ~$750M/quarter buybacks. My FY27+ path assumes the cycle crests gently (mid-single-digit growth by FY28) rather than repeating the 2023-24 -23% bust.

Q3 FY26 revenue >= $4.0B with adjusted gross margin >= 73% and Q4 guide midpoint >= $4.2B (cycle + AI comms thesis intact, incremental margins ~70%)Q3 FY26 CFO rebounds to >= $1.4B (>=35% of revenue) after the Q2 working-capital dip, keeping FY26 FCF on track for >= $4.8BQ3 FY26 revenue < $3.85B or Q4 FY26 revenue guide midpoint < $4.0B (bookings momentum broken)Inventory on the balance sheet up >10% q/q while revenue guide is flat-to-down — sell-in running ahead of consumption near a cyclical peak

Gemini 3.7 Flash

Analog Devices continues to benefit from secular inflections in industrial automation, intelligent edge processing, and AI datacenter optical/power communications, driving robust utilization in internal fabs and steady operating leverage across gross and operating margins.

B2B order book momentum sustaining YoY revenue growth >= 30% and adjusted operating margin >= 49%Industrial segment quarterly revenue reaching or exceeding $1,900M with gross margin expansion > 70%Free cash flow conversion falling below 30% of revenue or operating margin dropping below 45% adjustedBroad-based B2B channel inventory build causing QoQ revenue decline > 5% outside of normal seasonality

GPT-5.6 Sol

Record B2B bookings must convert into shipments without meaningful cancellations, Industrial utilization and data-center Communications mix must sustain GAAP gross-margin expansion, and Automotive must stabilize rather than offset the Industrial recovery. ADI also needs to preserve roughly 49% adjusted operating margin while funding R&D and keeping working-capital absorption temporary.

Reported fiscal Q3 revenue of at least $4.10 billion together with adjusted operating margin of at least 49.5%.Fiscal Q4 guidance midpoint of at least $4.15 billion revenue and at least $3.55 adjusted EPS.Reported fiscal Q3 revenue below $3.80 billion or adjusted operating margin below 47.5%.Fiscal Q4 revenue guidance midpoint below $3.90 billion, indicating that the Industrial and Communications recovery is stalling.

Grok 4.6

The Industrial restock that produced Q2's 20% sequential jump and 56% YoY growth is still running after August 1, not a one-quarter pull-forward; AI data-center/ATE and aerospace continue to offset any auto or consumer softness; hybrid internal/external capacity actually ships the record bookings rather than creating a lead-time spike that later cancels; pricing stays resilient so incremental revenue drops through at ~49% adjusted operating margin; and the Q2 working-capital absorption reverses enough that FCF conversion stays above 30% of sales.

Q3 FY26 revenue at or above $4.00B with Industrial still up sequentially versus Q2's $1,799MQ3 FY26 adjusted EPS at or above $3.45 and adjusted operating margin at or above 49%Q3 FY26 revenue at or below $3.80B, i.e. at or under the low end of company guidanceQ3 FY26 adjusted EPS at or below $3.15 or GAAP operating margin below 37.5%

Kimi K3

The analog/AI-infrastructure upcycle remains intact through FY27: Industrial (50% of revenue) sustains double-digit growth off lean channel inventories; data center power/optical keeps compounding at hyper-growth rates; ADI holds ~72.5-73% adjusted gross margin despite maxed internal utilization by flexing external capacity; pricing actions taken in 2026 stick; and the $1.5B Empower deal closes on schedule in 2H calendar 2026 and becomes a meaningful AI power revenue driver in 2027. Under those conditions ADI prints roughly $3.95B revenue and ~$3.44 adjusted EPS in Q3 FY26 (above the $3.9B/$3.30 guidance midpoints, consistent with six consecutive quarters of beats), grows revenue ~18% in FY27, and approaches its $20B 2030 revenue vision by FY2029 while returning ~100% of free cash flow.

Industrial end-market revenue growing >= +35% y/y (Q3 FY26 print vs. $1,293M in Q3 FY25) with record bookings commentary intactCommunications revenue >= $650M in Q3 FY26 (data center >75% of segment, sequential growth low-to-mid-teens as guided) and adjusted gross margin >= 72.5%Industrial revenue declining sequentially or book-to-bill below 1 disclosed in the Q3 FY26 print/call, signaling the B2B upcycle is crestingAdjusted gross margin < 71.5% (versus 73.0% in Q2 FY26 and ~72.5% implied for Q3), indicating pricing/mix erosion or outsourcing pressure

Muse Spark 1.2

Q3 beat is driven by Industrial and Communications outperformance with record B2B bookings converting to revenue, 67-68% GAAP gross and ~73% adjusted gross holds, opex discipline keeps GAAP op margin near 39-40% and adjusted near 49%, and FCF conversion stays >35% while capital return continues—without inventory/receivable blowout or Auto/Consumer drag.

Q3 FY2026 revenue > $3,950M and adjusted gross margin >73.0% showing Industrial/Comms mix liftQ3 FY2026 free cash flow > $1.55B and TTM FCF margin >36% demonstrating operational disciplineQ3 FY2026 revenue < $3,800M or QoQ decline in Industrial revenue indicating cyclical stallQ3 FY2026 GAAP operating margin <37.5% or inventory > $1,950M with rising days, signaling pricing/mix pressure

Forward model

Click a model to unfold its forward statements

Quarters across, statement lines down; shaded columns are fiscal years. Point estimates shown are p50s — the full p10/p90 bands live on the model pages.

Muse Spark 1.2 rev 3,925 · adj EPS 3.41 · FCF 1,539 CONTRACT PASSED
$M except per-shareFQ3-26FQ4-26FQ1-27FQ2-27FQ3-27FY2026FY2027FY2028FY2029
Revenue3,9254,0203,8504,0004,15014,72916,25017,30018,400
Gross profit2,6502,7202,6002,7102,8209,85511,05011,80012,600
Gross margin %67.5%67.7%67.5%67.8%68.0%66.9%68.0%68.2%68.5%
Operating profit1,5671,6201,4801,5801,6705,5646,4007,0007,600
Operating margin %39.9%40.3%38.4%39.5%40.2%37.8%39.4%40.5%41.3%
Net income1,3211,3701,2501,3401,4204,6985,4506,0006,550
Net income margin %33.7%34.1%32.5%33.5%34.2%31.9%33.5%34.7%35.6%
Adjusted EPS3.413.503.153.403.5512.4213.8015.0016.40
Cash flow—————————
Cash from ops1,6791,7201,5001,6501,7505,6406,4007,0007,600
Cash from investing-230-200-180-190-200-589-650-700-750
Cash before financing1,4491,5201,3201,4601,5505,0515,7506,3006,850
Cash from financing-1,326-1,400-1,100-1,300-1,350-4,870-5,400-5,800-6,200
Change in cash123120220160200181350500650
Capex-140-150-130-140-150-537-580-600-620
Free cash flow1,5391,5701,3701,5101,6005,1035,8206,4006,980
Balance sheet—————————
Total assets48,300————48,50049,50051,20053,000
Total liabilities14,100————14,05013,80013,60013,400
Total equity34,200————34,45035,70037,60039,600

Distributions, the full three statements, cited commitments, and all triggers: full run page →

Grok 4.6 rev 3,935 · adj EPS 3.38 · FCF 1,422 CONTRACT PASSED
$M except per-shareFQ3-26FQ4-26FQ1-27FQ2-27FQ3-27FY2026FY2027FY2028FY2029
Revenue3,9354,0903,9704,2004,35014,80816,30017,60018,900
Gross profit2,6632,7802,6902,8702,9809,92811,15012,15013,150
Gross margin %67.7%68.0%67.8%68.3%68.5%67.0%68.4%69.0%69.6%
Operating profit1,5651,6701,5951,7551,8405,6126,8007,6008,400
Operating margin %39.8%40.8%40.2%41.8%42.3%37.9%41.7%43.2%44.4%
Net income1,3091,4001,3351,4751,5504,7165,7506,4507,150
Net income margin %33.3%34.2%33.6%35.1%35.6%31.8%35.3%36.6%37.8%
Adjusted EPS3.383.523.383.653.8512.4414.4016.0017.70
Cash flow—————————
Cash from ops1,5671,7001,7501,7801,8505,5086,2007,0007,800
Cash from investing-200-210-185-195-205-569-800-850-900
Cash before financing1,3671,4901,5651,5851,6454,9395,4006,1506,900
Cash from financing-1,147-1,260-1,320-1,400-1,470-4,551-5,200-5,900-6,600
Change in cash220230245185175388200250300
Capex-145-155-150-155-160-547-650-700-750
Free cash flow1,4221,5451,6001,6251,6904,9615,5506,3007,050
Balance sheet—————————
Total assets48,205————48,45050,00051,50053,200
Total liabilities14,240————14,28014,80015,20015,600
Total equity33,965————34,17035,20036,30037,600

Distributions, the full three statements, cited commitments, and all triggers: full run page →

Gemini 3.7 Flash rev 3,940 · adj EPS 3.45 · FCF 1,500 CONTRACT PASSED
$M except per-shareFQ3-26FQ4-26FQ1-27FQ2-27FQ3-27FY2026FY2027FY2028FY2029
Revenue3,9404,1004,0504,2504,40014,82417,20019,00020,800
Gross profit2,7152,8502,8002,9803,10010,05012,10013,50014,900
Gross margin %68.9%69.5%69.1%70.1%70.5%67.8%70.3%71.1%71.6%
Operating profit1,6171,7301,6801,8201,9205,7247,3008,3009,300
Operating margin %41.0%42.2%41.5%42.8%43.6%38.6%42.4%43.7%44.7%
Net income1,3661,4601,4101,5301,6204,8346,1507,0007,900
Net income margin %34.7%35.6%34.8%36.0%36.8%32.6%35.8%36.8%38.0%
Adjusted EPS3.453.653.553.804.0012.6815.3517.5019.80
Cash flow—————————
Cash from ops1,6501,7501,6501,8001,9005,6417,2008,2009,200
Cash from investing-70-160-160-170-175-389-680-750-800
Cash before financing1,5801,5901,4901,6301,7255,2526,5207,4508,400
Cash from financing-1,266-1,300-1,300-1,350-1,400-4,710-5,450-6,200-7,000
Change in cash3142901902803255421,0701,2501,400
Capex-150-160-160-170-175-557-680-750-800
Free cash flow1,5001,5901,4901,6301,7255,0846,5207,4508,400
Balance sheet—————————
Total assets48,405————49,00052,00055,00058,500
Total liabilities14,500————14,60015,00015,50016,000
Total equity33,905————34,40037,00039,50042,500

Distributions, the full three statements, cited commitments, and all triggers: full run page →

Kimi K3 rev 3,950 · adj EPS 3.44 · FCF 1,444 CONTRACT PASSED
$M except per-shareFQ3-26FQ4-26FQ1-27FQ2-27FQ3-27FY2026FY2027FY2028FY2029
Revenue3,9504,0504,0104,3004,50014,78417,46018,86020,180
Gross profit2,6592,7302,6992,9033,0429,87411,82012,78713,722
Gross margin %67.3%67.4%67.3%67.5%67.6%66.8%67.7%67.8%68.0%
Operating profit1,5691,6121,5881,7201,8095,5587,0367,6388,213
Operating margin %39.7%39.8%39.6%40.0%40.2%37.6%40.3%40.5%40.7%
Net income1,3371,3751,3551,4731,5524,7196,0286,5747,100
Net income margin %33.9%34.0%33.8%34.3%34.5%31.9%34.5%34.9%35.2%
Adjusted EPS3.443.553.533.814.0012.5315.6017.1019.00
Cash flow—————————
Cash from ops1,6041,6501,5501,7001,8005,4947,3007,9008,500
Cash from investing-45-185-1,580-200-210-389-2,400-900-950
Cash before financing1,5591,465-301,5001,5905,1054,9007,0007,550
Cash from financing-1,490-1,490-780-1,545-1,465-5,124-5,350-6,650-7,250
Change in cash69-25-810-45125-19-450350300
Capex-160-175-180-190-200-582-800-850-900
Free cash flow1,4441,4751,3701,5101,6004,9126,5007,0507,600
Balance sheet—————————
Total assets47,786————48,05049,00049,80051,000
Total liabilities14,067————13,90014,20013,50013,000
Total equity33,719————34,15034,80036,30038,000

Distributions, the full three statements, cited commitments, and all triggers: full run page →

Fable 5 rev 4,000 · adj EPS 3.47 · FCF 1,349 CONTRACT PASSED
$M except per-shareFQ3-26FQ4-26FQ1-27FQ2-27FQ3-27FY2026FY2027FY2028FY2029
Revenue4,0004,2504,3304,4204,50015,03017,85018,80019,700
Gross profit2,7202,9002,9753,0353,09010,10512,26012,90013,500
Gross margin %68.0%68.2%68.7%68.7%68.7%67.2%68.7%68.6%68.5%
Operating profit1,6201,7601,8151,8551,8905,7577,5007,9008,300
Operating margin %40.5%41.4%41.9%42.0%42.0%38.3%42.0%42.0%42.1%
Net income1,3741,5001,5451,5801,6104,8816,4006,7507,100
Net income margin %34.4%35.3%35.7%35.7%35.8%32.5%35.9%35.9%36.0%
Adjusted EPS3.473.703.803.924.0012.7215.8016.9017.90
Cash flow—————————
Cash from ops1,5041,7501,8501,7001,8005,4957,2007,7008,100
Cash from investing-265-450-500-350-300-750-1,870-2,000-2,200
Cash before financing1,2391,3001,3501,3501,5004,7455,3305,7005,900
Cash from financing-1,263-1,280-1,330-1,370-1,450-4,755-5,330-5,700-5,900
Change in cash-242020-2050-10000
Capex-155-170-180-190-200-572-770-850-900
Free cash flow1,3491,5801,6701,5101,6004,9236,4306,8507,200
Balance sheet—————————
Total assets48,012————48,45050,00051,49052,990
Total liabilities14,050————14,13014,13014,00013,900
Total equity33,962————34,32035,87037,49039,090

Distributions, the full three statements, cited commitments, and all triggers: full run page →

GPT-5.6 Sol rev 4,020 · adj EPS 3.44 · FCF 1,278 CONTRACT PASSED
$M except per-shareFQ3-26FQ4-26FQ1-27FQ2-27FQ3-27FY2026FY2027FY2028FY2029
Revenue4,0204,1104,0504,2504,45014,91417,05018,50020,000
Gross profit2,7422,8152,7702,9203,07010,04111,70012,75013,800
Gross margin %68.2%68.5%68.4%68.7%69.0%67.3%68.6%68.9%69.0%
Operating profit1,5961,6501,6001,7201,8305,6236,9007,6008,300
Operating margin %39.7%40.1%39.5%40.5%41.1%37.7%40.5%41.1%41.5%
Net income1,3391,4001,3501,4601,5504,7465,8506,4007,000
Net income margin %33.3%34.1%33.3%34.4%34.8%31.8%34.3%34.6%35.0%
Adjusted EPS3.443.503.383.703.9512.4815.4017.0018.70
Cash flow—————————
Cash from ops1,4381,5001,4501,5501,6505,1786,2006,8007,500
Cash from investing-470-200-180-190-200-829-750-830-900
Cash before financing9681,3001,2701,3601,4504,3495,4505,9706,600
Cash from financing-1,121-1,500-1,300-1,350-1,420-4,765-5,300-5,700-6,200
Change in cash-153-200-301030-416150270400
Capex-160-180-170-180-190-587-700-780-850
Free cash flow1,2781,3201,2801,3701,4604,5915,5006,0206,650
Balance sheet—————————
Total assets48,200————48,00048,20049,00050,100
Total liabilities14,340————14,20013,70013,20012,700
Total equity33,860————33,80034,50035,80037,400

Distributions, the full three statements, cited commitments, and all triggers: full run page →

Every run is sealed pre-print with its evidence snapshot, prompt, and full tool transcript; anchors are verified against the filings they cite, and all statement arithmetic is re-added at intake. Forecasts are graded against as-released actuals when the company reports. Prompt v5. Nothing here is investment advice.