Corrected pre-print v2
Published 2026-08-17T18:45:50Z. This new vintage uses the corrected point-in-time ingestion and native-visual pipeline and supersedes the Aug 14 v1 forecast without changing it. Results were still unpublished in the issuer feed and SEC at 2026-08-17T18:47:10Z. View v1 · Machine-readable seal

RptdFinFcst · open model estimates · v5.6 corrected slate

Fabrinet (FN) — FQ4 2026

Fiscal 2026 Q4 + full year · quarter ended June 26, 2026 · reports Aug 17 after the close · 6 contract-valid models, registered before the print

Headline estimates

Current period

Company guidance — FQ4 2026

8-K Ex-99.1, verified to source bytes

1,250–1,290 revenue $M

3.72–3.87 adj EPS

Forward — fiscal years

no company fiscal-year guidance

See each model's FY columns in the forward model below.

Revenue & adjusted EPS	Rev p50 ($M)	Rev p10–p90	Adj EPS p50	EPS p10–p90	Δ vs guide mid
Fabrinet guidance	1,250 – 1,290		3.72 – 3.87
Gemini 3.7 Flash	1,275	1,260 – 1,295	3.77	3.72 – 3.88	+0.4%
Kimi K3	1,275	1,255 – 1,295	3.76	3.66 – 3.86	+0.4%
Grok 4.6	1,280	1,235 – 1,335	3.80	3.52 – 4.08	+0.8%
Muse Spark 1.2	1,280	1,250 – 1,310	3.78	3.68 – 3.88	+0.8%
GPT-5.6 Sol	1,305	1,265 – 1,345	3.96	3.72 – 4.18	+2.8%
Fable 5	1,320	1,282 – 1,372	3.88	3.74 – 4.10	+3.9%

Detailed estimates

Where the company guides in detail — and where the models land

Company detailed guidance (non-GAAP)
Revenue	$1.25B – $1.29B
Non-GAAP diluted EPS	$3.72 – $3.87
GAAP diluted EPS	$3.48 – $3.63
Diluted shares	≈ 36.3M

Model detail (GAAP statements)	Gross mgn	Op mgn	GAAP EPS	FCF p50 ($M)	Next-Q guide forecast ($M)
Fable 5	12.0%	10.1%	3.61	25	1,350 – 1,390
Gemini 3.7 Flash	12.0%	10.0%	3.52	10	1,300 – 1,340
GPT-5.6 Sol	11.9%	10.0%	3.68	102	1,320 – 1,360
Grok 4.6	12.1%	10.2%	3.55	31	1,310 – 1,350
Kimi K3	11.9%	10.0%	3.51	40	1,300 – 1,350
Muse Spark 1.2	12.1%	10.1%	3.54	40	1,300 – 1,350

Commentary — key items

What would make each model a buyer or a seller

Condensed from each model's thesis: every trigger is an observable reported fundamental with a check date, never a price level. Full trigger sets on the model pages.

Fable 5

The AI-driven optical cycle (1.6T datacom transceivers, DCI/telecom systems, HPC assemblies) must continue ramping through FY27 with Fabrinet retaining sole/lead manufacturing positions at its top customers (NVIDIA, Cisco, Lumentum, Ciena, Amazon programs); gross margin must hold near 12% despite ramp costs and baht exposure; and the $300M+ working-capital investment must convert to cash as programs mature rather than signal demand overshoot.

Q4 revenue ≥ $1.32B with datacom revenue re-accelerating sequentially (above FQ3's $260.4M), confirming the new 1.6T/datacom program rampsFY27 Q1 CFO ≥ $100M with inventory growth slowing below revenue growth (working-capital conversion beginning)Q1 FY27 revenue guidance below $1.30B (sequential decline), signaling a pause in datacom/DCI ramps or an inventory-digestion phase at the lead AI customerNon-GAAP gross margin below 11.6% for two consecutive quarters (ramp inefficiency plus Thai baht strength overwhelming pricing)

Gemini 3.7 Flash

Fabrinet must maintain its dominant competitive moat in complex high-precision optical packaging for leading hyperscaler and AI networking OEMs, successfully transitioning from 800G to 1.6T programs while ramping new HPC accounts and preserving ~12% gross margin and ~10.5%+ non-GAAP operating margin.

Datacom revenue quarterly growth exceeding 15% sequential alongside non-GAAP gross margins expanding above 12.3%Free cash flow generation exceeding $60M per quarter as working capital investments normalizeNon-GAAP operating margin contracting below 10.0% due to unabsorbed fixed costs or unfavorable customer mix shiftsQuarterly sequential revenue decline in optical communications reflecting loss of key AI/datacenter transceiver manufacturing share

GPT-5.6 Sol

Telecom/DCI demand must remain strong while new datacom and high-performance-computing programs scale fast enough to offset normalization in mature datacom and automotive programs. FN must hold roughly 12% GAAP gross margin despite Thai wage inflation and new-facility costs, and the large inventory and capital program must translate into shipment growth and materially better cash conversion.

Reported FQ4 revenue of at least $1.31 billion, non-GAAP EPS of at least $3.95, and FQ1 revenue guidance with a midpoint of at least $1.34 billion.FY2027 quarterly revenue growth remains above 20% year over year while GAAP operating margin is at least 10.0% and trailing-twelve-month free cash flow exceeds $350 million.FQ4 revenue is below $1.25 billion or non-GAAP diluted EPS is below $3.72, indicating that the inventory build and announced ramps did not convert.Two consecutive reported quarters show revenue growth below 10%, GAAP gross margin below 11.5%, or cumulative free cash flow below zero.

Grok 4.6

Telecom, DCI and HPC programs must keep compounding while the new datacom agreements actually ship in Q4/FY27; Chonburi spend converts into revenue without a lasting GM dilution below ~12% non-GAAP; Building 9 tax holiday holds the cash tax rate in the mid-single digits after June 2026; and working-capital intensity normalizes so FCF is sustainably positive as the $132.5 million building is completed.

Q4 FY26 revenue at or above $1,280 million (above the $1.27 billion guide midpoint) with non-GAAP diluted EPS at or above $3.80Q4 FY26 free cash flow (CFO plus capex) turns positive after Q3's $(10.829) millionQ4 FY26 revenue below the $1.25 billion guidance low endQ4 FY26 GAAP gross margin below 11.5% (Q3 was 11.9%) as HPC/PCBA mix dilutes

Kimi K3

AI datacenter optics demand keeps compounding: 800G/1.6T transceiver, DCI and HPC programs at Fabrinet's concentrated customer base (Nvidia, Cisco, Lumentum and the new datacom customers management cites) must keep ramping through FY27-29; the Chonburi capacity expansion must come online on schedule to relieve the current capacity constraint; non-GAAP gross margin must hold near 12% despite ramp and new-program drag; and the FY26 working-capital surge (inventories +$297M, receivables +$150M in 9M FY26) must normalize so FCF recovers toward 6-8% of revenue by FY28. If any leg fails — orders pause, margins slip below 11.5%, or inventory keeps outgrowing revenue — the growth and cash-flow paths in this forecast compress quickly given the stock's AI-driven expectations.

Datacom + HPC revenue inflects: total revenue ≥ $1.35B in FQ1 FY27 with non-GAAP gross margin ≥ 12.3% (evidence new AI datacom agreements are converting to revenue at accretive margins)Two consecutive quarters of non-GAAP gross margin ≥ 12.5% — a structural margin step-up from the 12.0-12.2% FY26 run-rateRevenue growth decelerates below 15% year-over-year in any reported quarter (would signal AI optics ramp maturing or share loss)Non-GAAP gross margin below 11.5% for two consecutive quarters (ramp under-absorption or pricing pressure at key customers)

Muse Spark 1.2

FN's Q4 print must show telecom/DCI momentum offsetting datacom softness, holding GAAP gross margin near 11.9% (non-GAAP 12.1%) and delivering non-GAAP EPS at ~$3.78 on ~36.3M shares, with capex ~$45M and FCF ~$40M, then sustain 15-20% y/y revenue growth into FY27 on datacom/HPC ramps while keeping capex leverage and share-based comp ~$32-34M annually, so ROIC stays >40%.

Q4 FY26 non-GAAP gross margin >=12.2% and non-GAAP operating margin >=10.7% with telecom/DCI >$650M in product mix disclosureFY27 Q1 revenue >=$1.32B with FCF >$35M (cfo+capex) and capex discipline < $40MQ4 FY26 revenue <$1.26B or non-GAAP EPS <$3.70 missing guidance low despite datacom ramp commentaryQ4 FY26 GAAP gross margin <11.5% or operating margin <9.5% indicating mix/price pressure

Forward model

Click a model to unfold its forward statements

Quarters across, statement lines down; shaded columns are fiscal years. Point estimates shown are p50s — the full p10/p90 bands live on the model pages.

Gemini 3.7 Flash rev 1,275 · adj EPS 3.77 · FCF 10 CONTRACT PASSED

$M except per-share	FQ4-26	FQ1-27	FQ2-27	FQ3-27	FQ4-27	FY2026	FY2027	FY2028	FY2029
Revenue	1,275	1,320	1,380	1,430	1,490	4,600	5,620	6,400	7,250
Gross profit	152	159	167	174	182	551	682	780	890
Gross margin %	12.0%	12.0%	12.1%	12.2%	12.2%	12.0%	12.1%	12.2%	12.3%
Operating profit	127	132	140	146	152	456	570	655	750
Operating margin %	10.0%	10.0%	10.1%	10.2%	10.2%	9.9%	10.1%	10.2%	10.3%
Net income	128	133	140	145	151	462	568	650	745
Net income margin %	10.0%	10.1%	10.1%	10.1%	10.1%	10.0%	10.1%	10.2%	10.3%
Adjusted EPS	3.77	3.92	4.10	4.25	4.42	13.75	16.69	19.10	21.85
Cash flow	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Cash from ops	75	85	95	105	115	277	400	480	570
Cash from investing	-45	-40	-35	-30	-30	-165	-135	-150	-170
Cash before financing	30	45	60	75	85	112	265	330	400
Cash from financing	-11	-15	-15	-15	-15	-41	-60	-80	-100
Change in cash	18	30	45	60	70	70	205	250	300
Capex	-65	-60	-55	-50	-50	-226	-215	-230	-250
Free cash flow	10	25	40	55	65	51	185	250	320
Balance sheet	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total assets	3,677	—	—	—	—	3,677	4,240	4,850	5,550
Total liabilities	1,250	—	—	—	—	1,250	1,310	1,400	1,500
Total equity	2,427	—	—	—	—	2,427	2,930	3,450	4,050

Distributions, the full three statements, cited commitments, and all triggers: full run page →

Kimi K3 rev 1,275 · adj EPS 3.76 · FCF 40 CONTRACT PASSED

$M except per-share	FQ4-26	FQ1-27	FQ2-27	FQ3-27	FQ4-27	FY2026	FY2027	FY2028	FY2029
Revenue	1,275	1,330	1,405	1,460	1,535	4,600	5,730	6,700	7,700
Gross profit	152	162	172	180	191	550	705	839	976
Gross margin %	11.9%	12.2%	12.3%	12.3%	12.4%	12.0%	12.3%	12.5%	12.7%
Operating profit	127	135	145	153	163	456	596	717	843
Operating margin %	10.0%	10.2%	10.3%	10.5%	10.6%	9.9%	10.4%	10.7%	11.0%
Net income	127	136	146	154	166	461	602	727	859
Net income margin %	10.0%	10.2%	10.4%	10.6%	10.8%	10.0%	10.5%	10.9%	11.2%
Adjusted EPS	3.76	3.97	4.25	4.47	4.76	13.75	17.45	21.20	25.00
Cash flow	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Cash from ops	105	118	128	140	152	307	538	700	890
Cash from investing	-60	-55	-53	-50	-47	-180	-205	-220	-230
Cash before financing	45	63	75	90	105	127	333	480	660
Cash from financing	-12	-12	-12	-12	-13	-42	-50	-100	-130
Change in cash	32	51	63	78	92	85	284	380	530
Capex	-65	-60	-58	-55	-52	-226	-225	-240	-250
Free cash flow	40	58	70	85	100	81	313	460	640
Balance sheet	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total assets	3,710	—	—	—	—	3,710	4,278	4,750	5,380
Total liabilities	1,255	—	—	—	—	1,255	1,328	1,365	1,425
Total equity	2,455	—	—	—	—	2,455	2,950	3,385	3,955

Distributions, the full three statements, cited commitments, and all triggers: full run page →

Grok 4.6 rev 1,280 · adj EPS 3.80 · FCF 31 CONTRACT PASSED

$M except per-share	FQ4-26	FQ1-27	FQ2-27	FQ3-27	FQ4-27	FY2026	FY2027	FY2028	FY2029
Revenue	1,280	1,315	1,365	1,405	1,450	4,605	5,535	6,360	7,120
Gross profit	155	158	164	170	176	553	667	770	870
Gross margin %	12.1%	12.0%	12.1%	12.1%	12.1%	12.0%	12.1%	12.1%	12.2%
Operating profit	130	132	138	143	148	459	562	655	745
Operating margin %	10.2%	10.0%	10.1%	10.2%	10.2%	10.0%	10.2%	10.3%	10.5%
Net income	129	130	137	142	147	463	556	645	730
Net income margin %	10.1%	9.9%	10.0%	10.1%	10.1%	10.0%	10.0%	10.1%	10.3%
Adjusted EPS	3.80	3.92	4.10	4.25	4.42	13.79	16.69	19.40	22.10
Cash flow	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Cash from ops	86	98	115	125	140	288	478	560	640
Cash from investing	-40	-30	-25	-22	-20	-160	-97	-90	-80
Cash before financing	46	68	90	103	120	128	381	470	560
Cash from financing	-7	-8	-10	-12	-15	-37	-45	-80	-120
Change in cash	39	60	80	91	105	91	336	390	440
Capex	-55	-48	-45	-42	-40	-216	-175	-160	-150
Free cash flow	31	50	70	83	100	72	303	400	490
Balance sheet	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total assets	3,718	—	—	—	—	3,718	4,330	5,100	5,900
Total liabilities	1,280	—	—	—	—	1,280	1,440	1,600	1,750
Total equity	2,438	—	—	—	—	2,438	2,890	3,500	4,150

Distributions, the full three statements, cited commitments, and all triggers: full run page →

Muse Spark 1.2 rev 1,280 · adj EPS 3.78 · FCF 40 CONTRACT PASSED

$M except per-share	FQ4-26	FQ1-27	FQ2-27	FQ3-27	FQ4-27	FY2026	FY2027	FY2028	FY2029
Revenue	1,280	1,325	1,380	1,420	1,460	4,605	5,585	6,200	6,800
Gross profit	156	162	170	175	180	554	687	760	835
Gross margin %	12.1%	12.2%	12.3%	12.3%	12.3%	12.0%	12.3%	12.3%	12.3%
Operating profit	130	134	141	145	150	458	570	630	695
Operating margin %	10.1%	10.2%	10.2%	10.2%	10.3%	10.0%	10.2%	10.2%	10.2%
Net income	128	133	139	143	148	462	563	625	690
Net income margin %	10.0%	10.0%	10.1%	10.1%	10.1%	10.0%	10.1%	10.1%	10.1%
Adjusted EPS	3.78	3.95	4.10	4.20	4.30	13.77	16.55	18.10	19.70
Cash flow	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Cash from ops	85	80	85	88	92	287	345	380	420
Cash from investing	-25	-22	-18	-15	-12	-145	-67	-60	-55
Cash before financing	60	58	67	73	80	142	278	320	365
Cash from financing	-8	-6	-6	-5	-5	-38	-22	-20	-18
Change in cash	51	52	61	68	75	104	256	300	347
Capex	-45	-38	-35	-32	-30	-206	-135	-130	-125
Free cash flow	40	42	50	56	62	81	210	250	295
Balance sheet	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total assets	3,678	—	—	—	—	3,678	4,190	4,490	4,840
Total liabilities	1,250	—	—	—	—	1,250	1,350	1,400	1,450
Total equity	2,428	—	—	—	—	2,428	2,840	3,090	3,390

Distributions, the full three statements, cited commitments, and all triggers: full run page →

GPT-5.6 Sol rev 1,305 · adj EPS 3.96 · FCF 102 CONTRACT PASSED

$M except per-share	FQ4-26	FQ1-27	FQ2-27	FQ3-27	FQ4-27	FY2026	FY2027	FY2028	FY2029
Revenue	1,305	1,365	1,435	1,500	1,565	4,630	5,865	6,900	7,800
Gross profit	156	164	174	182	190	554	709	835	951
Gross margin %	11.9%	12.1%	12.1%	12.1%	12.1%	12.0%	12.1%	12.1%	12.2%
Operating profit	130	138	146	154	160	459	599	710	810
Operating margin %	10.0%	10.1%	10.2%	10.2%	10.3%	9.9%	10.2%	10.3%	10.4%
Net income	134	143	151	158	166	467	618	730	830
Net income margin %	10.2%	10.5%	10.5%	10.5%	10.6%	10.1%	10.5%	10.6%	10.6%
Adjusted EPS	3.96	4.18	4.38	4.58	4.78	13.95	17.92	21.80	24.80
Cash flow	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Cash from ops	170	160	170	180	195	372	705	850	980
Cash from investing	-48	-90	-80	-70	-65	-168	-305	-300	-280
Cash before financing	122	70	90	110	130	204	400	550	700
Cash from financing	-3	-5	-5	-5	-5	-33	-20	-50	-100
Change in cash	117	65	85	105	125	171	380	500	600
Capex	-68	-75	-70	-65	-60	-229	-270	-250	-230
Free cash flow	102	85	100	115	135	143	435	600	750
Balance sheet	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total assets	3,678	—	—	—	—	3,678	4,260	4,950	5,800
Total liabilities	1,225	—	—	—	—	1,225	1,390	1,580	1,800
Total equity	2,453	—	—	—	—	2,453	2,870	3,370	4,000

Distributions, the full three statements, cited commitments, and all triggers: full run page →

Fable 5 rev 1,320 · adj EPS 3.88 · FCF 25 CONTRACT PASSED

$M except per-share	FQ4-26	FQ1-27	FQ2-27	FQ3-27	FQ4-27	FY2026	FY2027	FY2028	FY2029
Revenue	1,320	1,400	1,480	1,540	1,600	4,645	6,020	7,000	7,800
Gross profit	158	168	178	185	192	557	722	847	943
Gross margin %	12.0%	12.0%	12.0%	12.0%	12.0%	12.0%	12.0%	12.1%	12.1%
Operating profit	133	142	150	157	164	462	612	717	800
Operating margin %	10.1%	10.1%	10.1%	10.2%	10.2%	9.9%	10.2%	10.2%	10.3%
Net income	131	139	147	153	159	465	598	693	775
Net income margin %	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	10.0%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%
Adjusted EPS	3.88	4.08	4.30	4.47	4.63	13.87	17.40	19.90	22.00
Cash flow	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Cash from ops	90	110	120	130	140	292	500	640	760
Cash from investing	-55	-70	-75	-80	-85	-175	-310	-340	-380
Cash before financing	35	40	45	50	55	117	190	300	380
Cash from financing	-2	-15	-30	-20	-25	-32	-90	-150	-200
Change in cash	32	25	15	30	30	85	100	150	180
Capex	-65	-60	-60	-70	-70	-226	-260	-280	-300
Free cash flow	25	50	60	60	70	66	240	360	460
Balance sheet	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total assets	3,684	—	—	—	—	3,684	4,200	5,050	5,900
Total liabilities	1,245	—	—	—	—	1,245	1,350	1,560	1,735
Total equity	2,439	—	—	—	—	2,439	2,850	3,490	4,165

Distributions, the full three statements, cited commitments, and all triggers: full run page →

Every run is sealed pre-print with its evidence snapshot, prompt, and full tool transcript; anchors are verified against the filings they cite, and all statement arithmetic is re-added at intake. Forecasts are graded against as-released actuals when the company reports. Prompt v5.6. Nothing here is investment advice.