PRICEDIN.MARKETS · SIX-MODEL SLATE · SEALED AUG 26, 2026, BEFORE THE PRINT

NVIDIA (NVDA) — FQ2 2027

Fiscal 2027 Q2 · quarter ended July 26, 2026 · reports August 26 at 2:00 p.m. Pacific · 6 contract-valid models, registered before the print

Headline estimates

Current period

Company guidance — FQ2 2027

8-K Ex-99.1, verified to source bytes

89,180–92,820 revenue $M

Not guided adj EPS

Forward — fiscal years

no company fiscal-year guidance

See each model's FY columns in the forward model below.

Revenue & adjusted EPS	Rev p50 ($M)	Rev p10–p90	Adj EPS p50	EPS p10–p90	Δ vs guide mid
NVIDIA guidance	89,180 – 92,820		not guided
Kimi K3	92,500	90,000 – 95,000	2.12	2.00 – 2.24	+1.6%
Muse Spark 1.2	92,500	89,500 – 95,500	2.11	1.95 – 2.27	+1.6%
GPT-5.6 Sol	93,000	88,500 – 96,500	2.10	1.94 – 2.22	+2.2%
Gemini 3.7 Flash	93,500	90,000 – 96,500	2.14	2.05 – 2.22	+2.7%
Grok 4.6	93,500	88,000 – 99,000	2.15	1.92 – 2.38	+2.7%
Fable 5	95,000	91,500 – 98,000	2.18	2.02 – 2.34	+4.4%

Detailed estimates

Where the company guides in detail — and where the models land

Company detailed guidance (non-GAAP)
Revenue	$91.0B ± 2%
GAAP / non-GAAP gross margin	74.9% / 75.0% ± 50 bps
GAAP / non-GAAP operating expenses	~$8.5B / ~$8.3B
China Data Center compute in outlook	None assumed
FY2027 tax rate (GAAP and non-GAAP)	16.0% – 18.0%
Adjusted EPS	No company range issued

Model detail (GAAP statements)	Gross mgn	Op mgn	GAAP EPS	FCF p50 ($M)	Next-Q guide forecast ($M)
Fable 5	75.0%	66.0%	2.30	34,408	102,900 – 107,100
Gemini 3.7 Flash	75.0%	65.9%	2.13	50,000	100,000 – 104,000
GPT-5.6 Sol	75.1%	66.0%	2.39	38,359	98,000 – 102,000
Grok 4.6	74.9%	65.9%	2.17	43,731	101,000 – 105,000
Kimi K3	75.0%	65.9%	2.19	44,494	98,000 – 102,000
Muse Spark 1.2	74.9%	65.7%	2.11	49,854	98,000 – 102,000

Commentary — key items

What would make each model a buyer or a seller

Condensed from each model's thesis: every trigger is an observable reported fundamental with a check date, never a price level. Full trigger sets on the model pages.

Fable 5

Hyperscale and sovereign AI-factory capex keeps compounding through the $1T computing inflection NVIDIA laid out at GTC; Blackwell Ultra→Vera Rubin transitions execute on annual cadence without margin-destroying ramp costs; secured supply ($119B commitments) converts to shipped systems; China DC compute stays a pure option (zero in guides); and the customer base keeps diversifying so that receivables, vendor-financing and circular-investment risk stay contained while ~75% gross margins and >45% FCF margins persist.

Q2 FY27 revenue ≥ $95B with Data Center ≥ $88B and non-GAAP gross margin ≥ 75.0%, plus a Q3 FY27 revenue guide ≥ $105B — confirms Blackwell Ultra/Rubin cadence outrunning supply constraintsFY27 CFO ≥ $200B with H2 quarterly CFO/revenue conversion back above 50% after the Q2 cash-tax catch-upQ2 FY27 revenue < $91B (miss vs. own guide) or Q3 FY27 revenue guide < $98B — first evidence the beat-and-raise cadence is breakingNon-GAAP gross margin < 73.5% or GAAP opex growth > 15% q/q for two consecutive quarters (memory/input-cost pressure or ramp inefficiency)

Gemini 3.7 Flash

Blackwell 300 series and NVL rack-scale systems must maintain strong production ramp and customer delivery schedules without severe packaging or liquid cooling supply bottlenecks, while hyperscale and sovereign AI cluster demand continues unabated into next-generation Vera Rubin architectures.

Data Center sequential revenue growth exceeding 15% in Q3 FY27 accompanied by non-GAAP gross margins sustained at or above 75.0%Hyperscale and ACIE enterprise segment revenue growing >20% sequentially with Spectrum-X and InfiniBand networking exceeding $18B quarterlyNon-GAAP gross margin dipping below 73.5% indicating packaging yield bottlenecks or pricing pressure on Blackwell NVL systemsOperating cash flow conversion dropping below 85% of net income excluding discrete tax timing items over two consecutive quarters

GPT-5.6 Sol

AI infrastructure spending must remain supply- and deployment-constrained rather than demand-constrained; Blackwell 300 and networking must sustain the near-term ramp, Rubin must ship during the second half of FY2027 without a material transition pause, and gross margin must remain near 75% despite increasingly complex systems, tariffs and substantial supply commitments.

Q2 FY2027 revenue of at least $95 billion with GAAP gross margin at or above 75.0% and Q3 revenue guidance midpoint of at least $101 billion.Rubin-driven quarterly revenue reaches at least $110 billion while gross margin remains at or above 74.5%.Q2 FY2027 revenue below $88.5 billion or GAAP gross margin below 74.0%.Q3 FY2027 revenue guidance midpoint below $95 billion or sequential Data Center revenue growth below 5%.

Grok 4.6

Blackwell remains supply-unconstrained enough to print a mid-teens sequential revenue step in Q2 without China DC compute; networking (NVLink/Spectrum-X) and ACIE continue to diversify mix so gross margin holds near 75%; Vera Rubin ramps in 2H FY27/FY28 on the advertised annual cadence; hyperscaler and ACIE capex does not digest; and NVIDIA converts 70%+ of net income into CFO after the Q2 cash-tax bulge so the $80B buyback and $0.25 dividend are funded from operations rather than the securities portfolio.

Q2 FY27 revenue at or above $93.0B with GAAP gross margin at or above 74.5%Q2 FY27 free cash flow (CFO plus capex) at or above $40B even after the flagged cash-tax step-upQ2 FY27 revenue below $89.2B (the company's own -2% guide floor) or GAAP gross margin below 73.5%Q3 or Q4 FY27 Data Center revenue declining sequentially, or FY27 full-year revenue below $360B

Kimi K3

Hyperscaler and AI-cloud capex stays on a multi-year ramp (top-4 CSP GPU deployments nearly tripling year over year), Vera Rubin ramps on schedule in 2H26 without margin-dilutive yield problems, China Data Center compute revenue remains excluded with no incremental export-control shock to the $119B supply chain, and NVDA's strategic-investment portfolio (OpenAI, SB Energy, Intel) funds demand rather than impairments. Under those conditions revenue compounds from $81.6B in Q1 FY27 to ~$118B/qtr by mid-FY28 at ~74-75% gross margin, and free cash flow funds ~$110B+/yr of buybacks and the new $0.25 dividend.

Data Center revenue growth re-accelerates above ~10% q/q with both Hyperscale and ACIE sub-markets growing sequentiallyNon-GAAP gross margin held at or above 75.0% during the Rubin ramp (no yield-driven dilution)Data Center revenue q/q growth falls below 5% absent a product-transition quarterNon-GAAP gross margin below 72% for two consecutive quarters

Muse Spark 1.2

Blackwell 300 ramp and Dynamo inference uplift sustain 75% gross margins while Hyperscale stays ~50% of Data Center and ACIE diversification funds the $119B supply commitments without margin degradation; Edge recovers as Blackwell workstations offset PC weakness; large equity-security unrealized gains do not recur, so GAAP and non-GAAP converge and cash taxes normalize after Q2 spike, allowing ~$50B quarterly FCF to fund $16B+ buybacks and $6B dividends.

Q2 FY27 revenue >= $94B with GAAP gross margin >=74.5% and Data Center networking > $16B (10-Q segment split)Operating cash flow >= $52B and free cash flow >= $49B in Q2 (cash flow statement)Q2 revenue <= $89B (below guidance low) or sequential Data Center decline >5% vs Q1 $75.2BGAAP gross margin <73.5% (-140bp vs guide) indicating Blackwell yield/cost pressure

Forward model

Click a model to unfold its forward statements

Quarters across, statement lines down; shaded columns are fiscal years. Point estimates shown are p50s — the full p10/p90 bands live on the model pages.

Kimi K3 rev 92,500 · adj EPS 2.12 · FCF 44,494 CONTRACT PASSED

$M except per-share	FQ2-27	FQ3-27	FQ4-27	FQ1-28	FQ2-28	FY2027	FY2028	FY2029	FY2030
Revenue	92,500	100,000	106,000	112,000	118,000	380,115	484,000	570,000	655,000
Gross profit	69,375	74,800	78,970	83,440	87,674	284,302	359,600	421,800	481,425
Gross margin %	75.0%	74.8%	74.5%	74.5%	74.3%	74.8%	74.3%	74.0%	73.5%
Operating profit	60,975	66,000	69,770	73,840	77,674	250,281	318,600	375,800	429,425
Operating margin %	65.9%	66.0%	65.8%	65.9%	65.8%	65.8%	65.8%	65.9%	65.6%
Net income	53,194	55,810	58,964	62,350	65,540	226,289	268,700	316,064	360,988
Net income margin %	57.5%	55.8%	55.6%	55.7%	55.5%	59.5%	55.5%	55.4%	55.1%
Adjusted EPS	2.12	2.30	2.44	2.59	2.74	8.69	11.31	13.54	15.74
Cash flow	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Cash from ops	46,694	55,210	59,464	62,150	65,040	211,712	270,000	320,000	368,000
Cash from investing	-14,200	-12,500	-10,800	-11,000	-11,200	-63,929	-44,000	-46,000	-50,000
Cash before financing	32,494	42,710	48,664	51,150	53,840	147,783	226,000	274,000	318,000
Cash from financing	-27,850	-28,800	-29,800	-30,800	-31,800	-107,733	-125,000	-140,000	-155,000
Change in cash	4,644	13,910	18,864	20,350	22,040	40,050	101,000	134,000	163,000
Capex	-2,200	-2,500	-2,800	-3,000	-3,200	-9,257	-14,000	-16,000	-18,000
Free cash flow	44,494	52,710	56,664	59,150	61,840	202,455	256,000	304,000	350,000
Balance sheet	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total assets	285,018	—	—	—	—	356,492	511,992	699,556	919,544
Total liabilities	59,800	—	—	—	—	66,000	75,000	80,000	85,000
Total equity	225,218	—	—	—	—	290,492	436,992	619,556	834,544

Distributions, the full three statements, cited commitments, and all triggers: full run page →

Muse Spark 1.2 rev 92,500 · adj EPS 2.11 · FCF 49,854 CONTRACT PASSED

$M except per-share	FQ2-27	FQ3-27	FQ4-27	FQ1-28	FQ2-28	FY2027	FY2028	FY2029	FY2030
Revenue	92,500	101,500	108,000	112,000	118,000	383,615	488,000	582,000	670,000
Gross profit	69,283	76,125	81,000	84,000	88,500	287,565	366,000	436,500	502,500
Gross margin %	74.9%	75.0%	75.0%	75.0%	75.0%	75.0%	75.0%	75.0%	75.0%
Operating profit	60,783	67,125	71,500	74,000	78,000	252,944	324,000	388,000	448,000
Operating margin %	65.7%	66.1%	66.2%	66.1%	66.1%	65.9%	66.4%	66.7%	66.9%
Net income	51,154	56,500	60,500	63,000	66,500	226,475	271,500	325,000	375,000
Net income margin %	55.3%	55.7%	56.0%	56.2%	56.4%	59.0%	55.6%	55.8%	56.0%
Adjusted EPS	2.11	2.35	2.51	2.62	2.77	8.85	11.10	13.40	15.50
Cash flow	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Cash from ops	51,954	57,000	61,000	64,000	68,000	220,298	280,000	335,000	385,000
Cash from investing	-20,100	-21,000	-23,000	-24,000	-25,000	-90,529	-105,000	-120,000	-135,000
Cash before financing	31,854	36,000	38,000	40,000	43,000	129,769	175,000	215,000	250,000
Cash from financing	-24,070	-26,000	-28,000	-30,000	-32,000	-99,353	-135,000	-160,000	-185,000
Change in cash	7,784	10,000	10,000	10,000	11,000	30,416	40,000	55,000	65,000
Capex	-2,100	-2,400	-2,600	-2,800	-3,000	-8,857	-12,000	-15,000	-18,000
Free cash flow	49,854	54,600	58,400	61,200	65,000	211,441	268,000	320,000	367,000
Balance sheet	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total assets	295,000	—	—	—	—	315,000	365,000	425,000	495,000
Total liabilities	68,000	—	—	—	—	70,000	75,000	80,000	85,000
Total equity	227,000	—	—	—	—	245,000	290,000	345,000	410,000

Distributions, the full three statements, cited commitments, and all triggers: full run page →

GPT-5.6 Sol rev 93,000 · adj EPS 2.10 · FCF 38,359 CONTRACT PASSED

$M except per-share	FQ2-27	FQ3-27	FQ4-27	FQ1-28	FQ2-28	FY2027	FY2028	FY2029	FY2030
Revenue	93,000	100,000	110,000	118,000	126,000	384,615	520,000	650,000	780,000
Gross profit	69,843	75,000	82,500	88,500	94,500	288,500	390,000	484,000	577,000
Gross margin %	75.1%	75.0%	75.0%	75.0%	75.0%	75.0%	75.0%	74.5%	74.0%
Operating profit	61,343	66,000	72,700	77,500	82,500	253,000	338,000	414,000	487,000
Operating margin %	66.0%	66.0%	66.1%	65.7%	65.5%	65.8%	65.0%	63.7%	62.4%
Net income	58,059	55,000	60,000	64,000	68,000	220,000	280,000	340,000	397,000
Net income margin %	62.4%	55.0%	54.5%	54.2%	54.0%	57.2%	53.8%	52.3%	50.9%
Adjusted EPS	2.10	2.25	2.45	2.63	2.79	8.67	11.60	14.20	16.60
Cash flow	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Cash from ops	40,859	58,000	65,000	67,000	72,000	220,000	290,000	355,000	415,000
Cash from investing	-14,500	-12,000	-14,000	-15,000	-16,000	-75,000	-70,000	-80,000	-90,000
Cash before financing	26,359	46,000	51,000	52,000	56,000	145,000	220,000	275,000	325,000
Cash from financing	-33,050	-31,000	-38,000	-42,000	-45,000	-135,000	-170,000	-210,000	-250,000
Change in cash	-6,691	15,000	13,000	10,000	11,000	10,000	50,000	65,000	75,000
Capex	-2,500	-2,800	-3,000	-3,200	-3,500	-11,000	-14,500	-19,000	-24,000
Free cash flow	38,359	55,200	62,000	63,800	68,500	209,000	275,500	336,000	391,000
Balance sheet	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total assets	292,000	—	—	—	—	350,000	500,000	650,000	820,000
Total liabilities	70,000	—	—	—	—	80,000	100,000	120,000	145,000
Total equity	222,000	—	—	—	—	270,000	400,000	530,000	675,000

Distributions, the full three statements, cited commitments, and all triggers: full run page →

Gemini 3.7 Flash rev 93,500 · adj EPS 2.14 · FCF 50,000 CONTRACT PASSED

$M except per-share	FQ2-27	FQ3-27	FQ4-27	FQ1-28	FQ2-28	FY2027	FY2028	FY2029	FY2030
Revenue	93,500	102,000	111,000	119,000	127,000	388,115	515,000	610,000	710,000
Gross profit	70,125	76,500	83,250	89,250	95,250	291,032	386,250	457,500	532,500
Gross margin %	75.0%	75.0%	75.0%	75.0%	75.0%	75.0%	75.0%	75.0%	75.0%
Operating profit	61,625	67,300	73,450	78,750	84,050	255,911	341,250	403,500	468,500
Operating margin %	65.9%	66.0%	66.2%	66.2%	66.2%	65.9%	66.3%	66.1%	66.0%
Net income	51,875	56,600	61,800	66,200	70,700	228,596	287,000	339,000	393,500
Net income margin %	55.5%	55.5%	55.7%	55.6%	55.7%	58.9%	55.7%	55.6%	55.4%
Adjusted EPS	2.14	2.35	2.58	2.78	2.97	8.94	12.10	14.40	16.80
Cash flow	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Cash from ops	52,000	56,000	61,000	65,000	70,000	219,344	285,000	340,000	395,000
Cash from investing	-28,000	-28,200	-30,400	-32,600	-35,000	-111,029	-145,000	-175,000	-205,000
Cash before financing	24,000	27,800	30,600	32,400	35,000	108,315	140,000	165,000	190,000
Cash from financing	-27,587	-27,500	-28,000	-28,500	-29,000	-104,370	-120,000	-140,000	-165,000
Change in cash	-3,587	300	2,600	3,900	6,000	3,945	20,000	25,000	25,000
Capex	-2,000	-2,200	-2,400	-2,600	-2,800	-8,357	-12,000	-15,000	-18,000
Free cash flow	50,000	53,800	58,600	62,400	67,200	210,987	273,000	325,000	377,000
Balance sheet	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total assets	287,000	—	—	—	—	346,000	485,000	640,000	810,000
Total liabilities	66,000	—	—	—	—	76,000	105,000	130,000	160,000
Total equity	221,000	—	—	—	—	270,000	380,000	510,000	650,000

Distributions, the full three statements, cited commitments, and all triggers: full run page →

Grok 4.6 rev 93,500 · adj EPS 2.15 · FCF 43,731 CONTRACT PASSED

$M except per-share	FQ2-27	FQ3-27	FQ4-27	FQ1-28	FQ2-28	FY2027	FY2028	FY2029	FY2030
Revenue	93,500	104,500	118,000	124,000	134,000	397,615	545,000	670,000	780,000
Gross profit	70,032	77,955	88,028	92,420	99,830	297,172	405,000	490,000	555,000
Gross margin %	74.9%	74.6%	74.6%	74.5%	74.5%	74.7%	74.3%	73.1%	71.2%
Operating profit	61,582	68,455	77,528	80,920	87,530	261,101	348,000	412,000	455,000
Operating margin %	65.9%	65.5%	65.7%	65.3%	65.3%	65.7%	63.9%	61.5%	58.3%
Net income	52,731	57,500	65,500	68,200	73,800	234,052	292,000	345,000	380,000
Net income margin %	56.4%	55.0%	55.5%	55.0%	55.1%	58.9%	53.6%	51.5%	48.7%
Adjusted EPS	2.15	2.38	2.72	2.85	3.08	9.12	12.15	14.50	16.20
Cash flow	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Cash from ops	45,931	52,000	59,000	61,000	66,000	207,275	270,000	320,000	355,000
Cash from investing	-14,200	-18,000	-20,000	-16,000	-17,000	-78,629	-70,000	-65,000	-60,000
Cash before financing	31,731	34,000	39,000	45,000	49,000	128,646	200,000	255,000	295,000
Cash from financing	-28,055	-30,000	-35,000	-41,000	-45,000	-114,338	-190,000	-245,000	-285,000
Change in cash	3,676	4,000	4,000	4,000	4,000	14,308	10,000	10,000	10,000
Capex	-2,200	-2,600	-3,000	-3,300	-3,600	-9,557	-15,000	-18,000	-22,000
Free cash flow	43,731	49,400	56,000	57,700	62,400	197,718	255,000	302,000	333,000
Balance sheet	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total assets	285,800	—	—	—	—	330,000	480,000	620,000	780,000
Total liabilities	62,000	—	—	—	—	68,000	85,000	95,000	105,000
Total equity	223,800	—	—	—	—	262,000	395,000	525,000	675,000

Distributions, the full three statements, cited commitments, and all triggers: full run page →

Fable 5 rev 95,000 · adj EPS 2.18 · FCF 34,408 CONTRACT PASSED

$M except per-share	FQ2-27	FQ3-27	FQ4-27	FQ1-28	FQ2-28	FY2027	FY2028	FY2029	FY2030
Revenue	95,000	108,000	120,000	128,000	136,000	404,600	545,000	660,000	740,000
Gross profit	71,250	80,460	89,400	95,000	101,000	302,000	403,300	485,000	536,500
Gross margin %	75.0%	74.5%	74.5%	74.2%	74.3%	74.6%	74.0%	73.5%	72.5%
Operating profit	62,700	70,860	79,000	83,800	89,000	266,000	353,300	423,000	462,500
Operating margin %	66.0%	65.6%	65.8%	65.5%	65.4%	65.7%	64.8%	64.1%	62.5%
Net income	56,058	62,050	68,890	72,500	76,800	245,300	305,000	365,000	400,000
Net income margin %	59.0%	57.5%	57.4%	56.6%	56.5%	60.6%	56.0%	55.3%	54.1%
Adjusted EPS	2.18	2.46	2.75	2.90	3.08	9.25	12.40	15.00	16.70
Cash flow	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Cash from ops	36,608	55,000	60,000	62,000	60,000	202,000	260,000	330,000	375,000
Cash from investing	-16,000	-20,000	-25,000	-25,000	-25,000	-87,400	-110,000	-140,000	-150,000
Cash before financing	20,608	35,000	35,000	37,000	35,000	114,600	150,000	190,000	225,000
Cash from financing	-22,975	-25,000	-26,000	-27,000	-28,000	-95,300	-120,000	-160,000	-200,000
Change in cash	-2,367	10,000	9,000	10,000	7,000	19,300	30,000	30,000	25,000
Capex	-2,200	-2,500	-2,800	-3,000	-3,200	-9,300	-13,500	-18,000	-22,000
Free cash flow	34,408	52,500	57,200	59,000	56,800	192,700	246,500	312,000	353,000
Balance sheet	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total assets	298,000	—	—	—	—	385,000	600,000	800,000	1,000,000
Total liabilities	67,000	—	—	—	—	73,000	88,000	100,000	110,000
Total equity	231,000	—	—	—	—	312,000	512,000	700,000	890,000

Distributions, the full three statements, cited commitments, and all triggers: full run page →

Every run is sealed pre-print with its evidence snapshot, prompt, and full tool transcript; anchors are verified against the filings they cite, and all statement arithmetic is re-added at intake. Forecasts are graded against as-released actuals when the company reports. Nothing here is investment advice.